Bitcoin’s chart remains boring and range-bound. Although there are some up-and-down wicks, overall volatility is limited, and most altcoin pairs have pulled back significantly.
Needless to say, the current monthly chart is still under the control of the bulls. The MACD has begun to slowly tilt upward, which clearly suggests the rally hasn’t finished yet.
The key still lies in the weekly chart: it closed with a bearish engulfing pattern, swallowing last week’s bullish candle. From a chart perspective, there is still a need for adjustment. The support at 77,000 has not been effectively broken down through, so a sustained downtrend has not formed; instead, it’s trading amid complicated choppy consolidation. However, the MACD is already hovering close to the 0 axis, which means this week could be the best time for the bears to gain momentum.
There’s not much to say about the daily and 4-hour charts—they’re still in a stalemate. The market is clearly waiting for news to break the deadlock, so the CLARITY Act vote around the early hours of the 15th will have a big impact.
I’ll spend a bit more time talking about this. The Republicans have just submitted a revised version of the (CLARITY Act). They’ve made a lot of concessions, and it has also been agreed to by Trump. This revised draft—over 630 pages—makes major backtracks on areas including the personal asset review of the president, local law enforcement intervention, protection of bank interests, and the removal of criminal exemptions. The aim is to win over key Democratic senators with this ‘80% compromise’ to secure the 60 yes votes needed to clear the Senate debate threshold. Market predictions of the pass probability promptly bounced back to 31%, so BTC also started to bounce a bit.
My personal assessment is that the probability of the programmatic vote failing is still quite high—because it needs 60 votes, not just a simple majority of 51.
There are 53 Republican seats, and there are still a few internal voices opposing it. At least 7 Democrats will need to cross party lines in support, and based on current conditions it still seems very difficult.
If this is the outcome, BTC is very likely to drop straight away. But the market has actually been pricing in the expectation of it not passing for quite a long time already. Instead, it becomes a ‘bad news that’s been fully priced in,’ so after BTC quickly sells off sharply and then pulls back to close the move, the chance of that is quite high. Therefore, don’t be afraid just because you see a big drop. In the $73,000 to $75,000 range we anticipate, buying on the dip would actually be a great entry opportunity!
What if it passes with only a small probability? It’s okay. The Senate allows the bill to enter debate, so you can propose amendments. It’s still far from being formally enacted, and it doesn’t take effect immediately. There are still several tough hurdles before it truly lands—what the final outcome will be is impossible to say for sure!
So if things miraculously get through, I think the market could sentimentally spike upward with a needle-like move. But I think it’s more likely that we’ll see a long upper wick to lure in buyers, followed by another drop.
The signals that allow entry from above are still valid—only if the price breaks above 83,000 and holds!
I’ve said so much just to make sure everyone is clear on where things stand. When the corresponding price action shows up, you’ll have a plan to respond. When the market becomes volatile, chasing highs and cutting lows, and failing to hold on to the fruits of victory—that’s truly a pity!
Position status: ETH with $15,56 and SOL with $65, for a total of 40% exposure (excluding altcoin positions). Personally, I’ll continue waiting to buy in batches under $75,000.
