【The Federal Reserve is meeting tomorrow, with expectations for a rate hike surging to 87%; even Goldman Sachs has changed its tune 📊】
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The Federal Reserve’s policy meeting begins tomorrow, and the results will be released early Wednesday morning. The market is pricing in a 25-basis-point rate hike probability that has already risen to around 87%. August CPI came in at 3.4% year-over-year and 0.4% month-over-month, with inflation not cooling.
First, let’s clarify what’s actually different this time—Goldman Sachs itself has already changed its wording. It revised its forecast from staying put to a direct 25-basis-point hike. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury is edging toward 5%, then fell back to 4.93% on Friday.
What’s really worth watching is the key support line at $75,000. Bitcoin only just stabilized above this level in August, and it’s the foundation of this rebound. If yields keep moving higher, that foundation will be worn down little by little.
For crypto, Bitcoin itself doesn’t pay interest—it can only make money by rising in price. The higher the interest offered by Treasuries, the greater the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin. This week, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England also have meetings, and all three will tighten liquidity together.
Do you think the Fed will really pull the trigger on Wednesday, or just talk to scare the market? Let’s discuss in the comments.
Group chat: 📲 加入X先生的粉丝群聊
The Federal Reserve’s policy meeting begins tomorrow, and the results will be released early Wednesday morning. The market is pricing in a 25-basis-point rate hike probability that has already risen to around 87%. August CPI came in at 3.4% year-over-year and 0.4% month-over-month, with inflation not cooling.
First, let’s clarify what’s actually different this time—Goldman Sachs itself has already changed its wording. It revised its forecast from staying put to a direct 25-basis-point hike. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury is edging toward 5%, then fell back to 4.93% on Friday.
What’s really worth watching is the key support line at $75,000. Bitcoin only just stabilized above this level in August, and it’s the foundation of this rebound. If yields keep moving higher, that foundation will be worn down little by little.
For crypto, Bitcoin itself doesn’t pay interest—it can only make money by rising in price. The higher the interest offered by Treasuries, the greater the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin. This week, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England also have meetings, and all three will tighten liquidity together.
Do you think the Fed will really pull the trigger on Wednesday, or just talk to scare the market? Let’s discuss in the comments.
