CLARITY tomorrow: final text with 126 Dem amendments. On Polymarket it’s already ~30%. What does that mean for $BTC ahead of the FOMC.
Numbers. Sep 15 at 14:15 ET — cloture on H.R. 3633 (threshold 60). GOP 53 → needs ≥7 Democrats. Today: Lummis/Boozman/Scott — the final: 126 Dem amendments, ethics Tillis-Gallego, and a circuit-breaker from the Treasury for payments in stablecoins. Polymarket “law in 2026” ~30% (Sep 5 was ~13–15%). $BTC ~77,700. Two days later, the FOMC is Sep 16; the hike is ~85–90%.
My take: the market has already increased the odds of the bill after the final. For $BTC, the more important window is: a failure of cloture tomorrow + the midweek hike = a double hit to risk; success means removing the regulatory tail before the bets.
Question: if tomorrow doesn’t reach 60, does $BTC cut 77k before the FOMC, or does it wait until Wednesday?
#Bitcoin #CLARITY
Numbers. Sep 15 at 14:15 ET — cloture on H.R. 3633 (threshold 60). GOP 53 → needs ≥7 Democrats. Today: Lummis/Boozman/Scott — the final: 126 Dem amendments, ethics Tillis-Gallego, and a circuit-breaker from the Treasury for payments in stablecoins. Polymarket “law in 2026” ~30% (Sep 5 was ~13–15%). $BTC ~77,700. Two days later, the FOMC is Sep 16; the hike is ~85–90%.
My take: the market has already increased the odds of the bill after the final. For $BTC, the more important window is: a failure of cloture tomorrow + the midweek hike = a double hit to risk; success means removing the regulatory tail before the bets.
Question: if tomorrow doesn’t reach 60, does $BTC cut 77k before the FOMC, or does it wait until Wednesday?
#Bitcoin #CLARITY