September 7–13 Weekly Report | Core CPI beats expectations, pushing the rate-hike probability to 89%; ETF posts its first weekly net outflow in four weeks, and 76,500 is the final line of defense before next week’s showdown
This week, BTC closed around 76,800–77,000, with the weekly chart down about 3%–4%. From the Sept 3 high of 82,283, the ten-day pullback has been roughly 5,500 dollars. ETH, on the other hand, is holding up—weekly price is basically flat around 2,450. Bitcoin is running, while money is moving into Ethereum—this divergence has been going on for two weeks.
My biggest takeaway from watching the market this week is: when prices rise, it’s hesitant; when prices fall, it’s decisive. The 82,000 level was tested twice and failed to hold, and once the CPI data came out, it was immediately smashed through 78,000. It wasn’t that the bulls were defeated—it’s that they simply ran out of steam.
Key variables next week: ① Sept 15–16 Fed FOMC meeting—89% probability of a rate hike ② Sept 15 end-of-debate vote in the U.S. Senate on the Clarity Act ③ Sept 14 Oman meeting for countries along the Persian Gulf coast—shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz
Key variables recap for this week
First, core CPI came in hotter than expected, pushing the rate-hike probability from 70% all the way to 89%.
August CPI year over year rose 3.4%, and month over month rose 0.4%, both in line with expectations. But core CPI month over month rose 0.3%, above the expected 0.2%, marking the largest single-month increase since April this year. This 0.1% deviation moved the September rate-hike probability from about 72% on Thursday to 89%.
Goldman Sachs changed its forecast from “unchanged” to a Sept 25-basis-point hike. JPMorgan expects two hikes—one in September and one in December. CICC believes August CPI has already hit the Fed’s rate-hike threshold. Among 20 institutions, 16 expect a rate hike next week.
Second, for the first time in four weeks, ETFs saw weekly net outflows—Bitcoin is running, while money is moving into ETH.
For the week of Sept 8–11, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of about $462.7 million, turning back to weekly net outflows for the first time in four weeks. On Sept 10 alone, outflows were $282.6 million; on Sept 9, $120.2 million; and on Sept 8, $46.6 million—negative for three straight days.
Ethereum is a completely different story. In the same period, ETH ETFs saw net inflows of about $196.9 million, with BlackRock’s ETHA contributing roughly $149 million. Bitcoin is running, while Ethereum is attracting—this isn’t a one-day thing; it’s been going on for two weeks.
This week, BTC closed around 76,800–77,000, with the weekly chart down about 3%–4%. From the Sept 3 high of 82,283, the ten-day pullback has been roughly 5,500 dollars. ETH, on the other hand, is holding up—weekly price is basically flat around 2,450. Bitcoin is running, while money is moving into Ethereum—this divergence has been going on for two weeks.
My biggest takeaway from watching the market this week is: when prices rise, it’s hesitant; when prices fall, it’s decisive. The 82,000 level was tested twice and failed to hold, and once the CPI data came out, it was immediately smashed through 78,000. It wasn’t that the bulls were defeated—it’s that they simply ran out of steam.
Key variables next week: ① Sept 15–16 Fed FOMC meeting—89% probability of a rate hike ② Sept 15 end-of-debate vote in the U.S. Senate on the Clarity Act ③ Sept 14 Oman meeting for countries along the Persian Gulf coast—shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz
Key variables recap for this week
First, core CPI came in hotter than expected, pushing the rate-hike probability from 70% all the way to 89%.
August CPI year over year rose 3.4%, and month over month rose 0.4%, both in line with expectations. But core CPI month over month rose 0.3%, above the expected 0.2%, marking the largest single-month increase since April this year. This 0.1% deviation moved the September rate-hike probability from about 72% on Thursday to 89%.
Goldman Sachs changed its forecast from “unchanged” to a Sept 25-basis-point hike. JPMorgan expects two hikes—one in September and one in December. CICC believes August CPI has already hit the Fed’s rate-hike threshold. Among 20 institutions, 16 expect a rate hike next week.
Second, for the first time in four weeks, ETFs saw weekly net outflows—Bitcoin is running, while money is moving into ETH.
For the week of Sept 8–11, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of about $462.7 million, turning back to weekly net outflows for the first time in four weeks. On Sept 10 alone, outflows were $282.6 million; on Sept 9, $120.2 million; and on Sept 8, $46.6 million—negative for three straight days.
Ethereum is a completely different story. In the same period, ETH ETFs saw net inflows of about $196.9 million, with BlackRock’s ETHA contributing roughly $149 million. Bitcoin is running, while Ethereum is attracting—this isn’t a one-day thing; it’s been going on for two weeks.