The Federal Reserve has been pushed into a corner: if it doesn’t raise rates, the market will turn on it
This time the Fed really has nowhere to retreat. #比特币盘中低见76367美元
The market has already priced in an over 85% chance of a rate hike, which is basically a full-court bet: if you dare to do nothing, we dare to sell off the market. The Treasury market is already smoking, with the 30-year yield surging to its highest level since 2023, and buyers basically going on strike. If the Fed chickens out now, it won’t be “keeping things stable”; it will be telling the whole world — my word means nothing. $BTC
Waller has boxed himself in. At the end of August, he had just said something hard-line: “If inflation doesn’t come down, we’re not done.” Now the inflation data is out, core CPI is rising instead of falling, and consumers’ inflation expectations have jumped to 4.6%. You talked so big before, and now you won’t act? Then those words become empty promises. #AnthropicCEO呼吁放缓AI发展
The logic for market players is simple: isn’t the Fed supposed to be independent and credible? Then I’ll bet you won’t dare to break your word. That’s where the 85% bet comes from — everyone is wagering that, to protect its credibility, the Fed will have to hike rates even if it has to grit its teeth and do it. $ETH
But raising rates also has a cost. AI is propping up the economy, and one hike could cool everything off. But if it doesn’t hike? Credibility collapses, inflation expectations become unanchored, and getting inflation back down later will cost far more.
Put simply, this isn’t about whether to hike rates or not. It’s about whether the Fed is still worth trusting. If there’s no move on Wednesday, the market won’t just be disappointed — it will reprice the Fed’s floor, and that’s the real big deal.
#以太坊跌破2500美元
This time the Fed really has nowhere to retreat. #比特币盘中低见76367美元
The market has already priced in an over 85% chance of a rate hike, which is basically a full-court bet: if you dare to do nothing, we dare to sell off the market. The Treasury market is already smoking, with the 30-year yield surging to its highest level since 2023, and buyers basically going on strike. If the Fed chickens out now, it won’t be “keeping things stable”; it will be telling the whole world — my word means nothing. $BTC
Waller has boxed himself in. At the end of August, he had just said something hard-line: “If inflation doesn’t come down, we’re not done.” Now the inflation data is out, core CPI is rising instead of falling, and consumers’ inflation expectations have jumped to 4.6%. You talked so big before, and now you won’t act? Then those words become empty promises. #AnthropicCEO呼吁放缓AI发展
The logic for market players is simple: isn’t the Fed supposed to be independent and credible? Then I’ll bet you won’t dare to break your word. That’s where the 85% bet comes from — everyone is wagering that, to protect its credibility, the Fed will have to hike rates even if it has to grit its teeth and do it. $ETH
But raising rates also has a cost. AI is propping up the economy, and one hike could cool everything off. But if it doesn’t hike? Credibility collapses, inflation expectations become unanchored, and getting inflation back down later will cost far more.
Put simply, this isn’t about whether to hike rates or not. It’s about whether the Fed is still worth trusting. If there’s no move on Wednesday, the market won’t just be disappointed — it will reprice the Fed’s floor, and that’s the real big deal.
#以太坊跌破2500美元
