The market is cooling down; escalation in the Strait of Hormuz is intensifying. The decisive week is ahead
🕯 The weekend passed calmly within familiar ranges: Bitcoin closed the week at -4.7%, Ethereum at -6.93%, and the market capitalization fell by $124 billion. Right now, there’s a slight rebound—BTC is holding around $77.4K.
❌ A three-week streak of inflows into the Bitcoin ETF was interrupted by a net outflow of $462.73 million, while Ethereum, on the other hand, is seeing inflows for the fourth week in a row (+$197.11 million). The Fear and Greed Index dropped from 71 points a week ago to 57 today—optimism is clearly cooling off, even though the market is still formally in the "greed" zone.
🛢 Brent oil sharply jumped above $107 after Saudi Arabia halted a major pipeline due to an attack. Separately, a series of strikes on tankers continues in the Strait of Hormuz—another vessel sailing with U.S. escort was seriously damaged. Against this backdrop, the U.S. has shortened the time windows for military protection of tankers passing through the strait—such guarantees are now provided only twice a day instead of the more flexible intervals previously, which significantly increases risks for shipping.
🗣 Trump says the war with Iran will likely end before the U.S. midterm elections or right after them—apparently, Iran does not intend to help bring that about.
📉 Futures on the U.S. stock market started the week lower as investment in risk assets is being scaled back.
⚠️ The main event of the week is the Fed meeting on September 16: the likelihood of a rate hike is estimated at nearly 100% based on one set of data and 86.7% based on another—regardless, the largest banks (Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, UBS) are unanimously expecting tighter policy, which could intensify a local correction in the second half of the month.
🟠 A telling case of capitulation: British Satsuma Technology sold all of its 668 BTC (~$44 million) and is being delisted from the London Stock Exchange today. The company managed to buy the coins at an average price above $113K, crystallizing a significant loss.
📜 Republican senators have introduced a revised version of the CLARITY Act spanning 630 pages with more than a hundred changes—the new draft is specifically aimed at protocols that only call themselves decentralized in name. The key procedural vote on the bill has been scheduled for tomorrow, September 15. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Ventures invested $100 million in Payward (the parent company of the Kraken exchange) to jointly develop infrastructure for tokenized stocks, with a launch planned for Q2 2027—institutional interest in infrastructure continues to grow even amid overall market turbulence.