📊 BlockInfinity Evening News · 9/13（the night before the FOMC）
1️⃣ 🌍 Macro
🔴 Goldman flips its forecast: it now expects a 25bp rate hike at the 9/16 FOMC (previously unchanged), saying it is mainly driven by market pricing rather than fundamentals
🔴 Strong CPI last Friday lifted U.S. Treasury yields; the 10Y is nearing 5%; the dollar strengthened (USDJPY 154.05, +0.3%)
🟡 High divergence ahead of the FOMC: rate-hike pricing is ~90% vs. the White House pressure from Hase(c)ett: “no reason to hike”
2️⃣ 🗺️ Global situation
🔴 Strait of Hormuz weekend passage volume fell to single digits (far below the 14 ships/10-day average); Middle East supply risk persists
🔴 Saudi continues attacks in Yemen; Iran-Gulf situation remains unresolved; WTI stays elevated around ~$97
🟡 Japan government bond yields are rising and expectations for the Bank of Japan to hike are warming (BoJ on Friday); Sweden’s opposition party won the parliamentary election
3️⃣ 📈 Technicals (top-down · closed candles · California time)
BTC $77,626 (+0.50%)
🟡 1D: Bearish MACD alignment (above zero) / RSI54, tangled above MA30
🟢 4H: RSI40 oversold bounce; BOLL squeeze turning point near｜1H golden cross with volume expansion, RSI62; short-term focus shifts up to 77.6K
ETH $2,512 (-0.27%)
🟡 1D: Bearish MACD alignment / RSI59 above MA20｜4H weak with RSI45｜1H golden cross with RSI55
SOL $100.94 (-0.88%) (weakest among the three)
🔴 1D: Bearish MACD alignment / RSI55｜4H oversold RSI39｜1H golden cross barely holds above $100
4️⃣ ⚙️ Derivatives
🟢 Funding rate mildly positive (BTC +0.0054% / ETH +0.0055%; shorts earn slightly); SOL slightly negative -0.0006%
🟡 OI (per exchange): BTC $2.17B / ETH $1.60B / SOL $0.28B, no extreme values
🟡 Weekend liquidity is thin; perpetual prices are for reference only
5️⃣ ₿ BTC Core
🟡 Spot premium -$42 / -0.054% (slight discount; U.S. capital demand is relatively soft)
🟡 F&G 57 Greed (cooling vs. 60 yesterday)
🟢 DVOL 37.92 (low vol; option pricing calm)
🟡 MaxPain ~ $77K (including FOMC expiry magnetism)
6️⃣ 🧭 Overall outlook
The four macro signals remain bearish (strong dollar / rates near 5% / Middle East supply risk / Goldman turning to hikes), but weekend conditions are low-vol and trendless. The structure across the three coins is consistent: 1D is mildly bearish and entangled + 4H oversold + 1H short-term bounce = a typical “low-vol magnet” before the FOMC. The direction will be determined by the 9/16 FOMC; don’t treat intraday pullbacks/bounces as a trend for now.
7️⃣ 🎯 Today’s trading ideas (levels · not holding positions)
🔵 BTC: Range $76K–$78.3K. For a short, wait for the bounce and place orders to sell $78K–$78.3K, stop-loss above $79K; only if it breaks and closes below $76K does the bearish trend accelerate. For a long, only short-term: near $76K with light sizing; stop-loss $75.3K
🔵 ETH: Strongest of the three—prefer the long leg on ETH. Around $2,470; stop-loss $2,400
🔵 SOL: Don’t chase longs—shorts can follow if BTC breaks down
⚠️ Before the FOMC binary event, don’t go all-in; widen stop-loss if the trend is no longer valid (BTC 4H ATR ~ $436—don’t set it narrower)
8️⃣ ⚠️ Risk events
🔥 Wednesday 9/16 FOMC (about 90% priced for a hike vs. White House pushing not to hike; binary)
📅 Thursday: Bank of England / Friday: Bank of Japan
🔴 Hormuz supply risk in the Middle East, oil prices
🟡 Korea Electric pre-paid 250 trillion won rejected by Samsung/SK Hynix (storage capex disagreement)
#BTC #ETH #SOL
1️⃣ 🌍 Macro
🔴 Goldman flips its forecast: it now expects a 25bp rate hike at the 9/16 FOMC (previously unchanged), saying it is mainly driven by market pricing rather than fundamentals
🔴 Strong CPI last Friday lifted U.S. Treasury yields; the 10Y is nearing 5%; the dollar strengthened (USDJPY 154.05, +0.3%)
🟡 High divergence ahead of the FOMC: rate-hike pricing is ~90% vs. the White House pressure from Hase(c)ett: “no reason to hike”
2️⃣ 🗺️ Global situation
🔴 Strait of Hormuz weekend passage volume fell to single digits (far below the 14 ships/10-day average); Middle East supply risk persists
🔴 Saudi continues attacks in Yemen; Iran-Gulf situation remains unresolved; WTI stays elevated around ~$97
🟡 Japan government bond yields are rising and expectations for the Bank of Japan to hike are warming (BoJ on Friday); Sweden’s opposition party won the parliamentary election
3️⃣ 📈 Technicals (top-down · closed candles · California time)
BTC $77,626 (+0.50%)
🟡 1D: Bearish MACD alignment (above zero) / RSI54, tangled above MA30
🟢 4H: RSI40 oversold bounce; BOLL squeeze turning point near｜1H golden cross with volume expansion, RSI62; short-term focus shifts up to 77.6K
ETH $2,512 (-0.27%)
🟡 1D: Bearish MACD alignment / RSI59 above MA20｜4H weak with RSI45｜1H golden cross with RSI55
SOL $100.94 (-0.88%) (weakest among the three)
🔴 1D: Bearish MACD alignment / RSI55｜4H oversold RSI39｜1H golden cross barely holds above $100
4️⃣ ⚙️ Derivatives
🟢 Funding rate mildly positive (BTC +0.0054% / ETH +0.0055%; shorts earn slightly); SOL slightly negative -0.0006%
🟡 OI (per exchange): BTC $2.17B / ETH $1.60B / SOL $0.28B, no extreme values
🟡 Weekend liquidity is thin; perpetual prices are for reference only
5️⃣ ₿ BTC Core
🟡 Spot premium -$42 / -0.054% (slight discount; U.S. capital demand is relatively soft)
🟡 F&G 57 Greed (cooling vs. 60 yesterday)
🟢 DVOL 37.92 (low vol; option pricing calm)
🟡 MaxPain ~ $77K (including FOMC expiry magnetism)
6️⃣ 🧭 Overall outlook
The four macro signals remain bearish (strong dollar / rates near 5% / Middle East supply risk / Goldman turning to hikes), but weekend conditions are low-vol and trendless. The structure across the three coins is consistent: 1D is mildly bearish and entangled + 4H oversold + 1H short-term bounce = a typical “low-vol magnet” before the FOMC. The direction will be determined by the 9/16 FOMC; don’t treat intraday pullbacks/bounces as a trend for now.
7️⃣ 🎯 Today’s trading ideas (levels · not holding positions)
🔵 BTC: Range $76K–$78.3K. For a short, wait for the bounce and place orders to sell $78K–$78.3K, stop-loss above $79K; only if it breaks and closes below $76K does the bearish trend accelerate. For a long, only short-term: near $76K with light sizing; stop-loss $75.3K
🔵 ETH: Strongest of the three—prefer the long leg on ETH. Around $2,470; stop-loss $2,400
🔵 SOL: Don’t chase longs—shorts can follow if BTC breaks down
⚠️ Before the FOMC binary event, don’t go all-in; widen stop-loss if the trend is no longer valid (BTC 4H ATR ~ $436—don’t set it narrower)
8️⃣ ⚠️ Risk events
🔥 Wednesday 9/16 FOMC (about 90% priced for a hike vs. White House pushing not to hike; binary)
📅 Thursday: Bank of England / Friday: Bank of Japan
🔴 Hormuz supply risk in the Middle East, oil prices
🟡 Korea Electric pre-paid 250 trillion won rejected by Samsung/SK Hynix (storage capex disagreement)
#BTC #ETH #SOL