Tomorrow’s Clear Act vote: market sentiment has already started to simmer, and forecasts say the market @Predictdotfun @predictdotfun-华语 could be pulled up by a factor of two with higher probability.
Loomis—Auntie/Big Sister—has released the final text, incorporating more than 120 demands proposed by the Democrats. Looking specifically at the clause changes, it’s expected to clear the first round of 60 votes, but passing the second round of 60 votes will be very difficult.
Why? Because several issues are not limited:
1. Other family members can continue operating the existing projects;
2. You can structure the company to keep ownership below the threshold;
3. The clauses are more targeted at “issuing new coins again later, and acting as the issuer again,” but existing tokens like the Trump coin can continue to be divided/allocated;
4. The clauses automatically expire in 2029—after expiration, not only do the new restrictions disappear, but actions taken during the term may also become harder to pursue.
Given all this, it feels like it can clear the first round, but if Trump doesn’t further compromise, the second round may be a close call.
The process is roughly like this:
1. September 15: the first cloture (60 votes)
This only ends the debate about whether to even talk. Passing it doesn’t mean the bill is already being amended.
2. Afterwards, up to about 30 hours
A vote will be held on whether to formally begin consideration. Passing it means you get onto the floor and can propose amendments.
3. Floor amendments
This isn’t limited to the first 30 hours; discussions could go on for days.
4. The second cloture (another 60 votes)
Estimated earliest in the second half of this week, but more likely next week. This is the final 60-vote step in the Senate; only after it passes can the Senate side be considered “very likely to wrap up.”
So, don’t pop the champagne just because it passes on the 15th—there’s still one more 😂
Loomis—Auntie/Big Sister—has released the final text, incorporating more than 120 demands proposed by the Democrats. Looking specifically at the clause changes, it’s expected to clear the first round of 60 votes, but passing the second round of 60 votes will be very difficult.
Why? Because several issues are not limited:
1. Other family members can continue operating the existing projects;
2. You can structure the company to keep ownership below the threshold;
3. The clauses are more targeted at “issuing new coins again later, and acting as the issuer again,” but existing tokens like the Trump coin can continue to be divided/allocated;
4. The clauses automatically expire in 2029—after expiration, not only do the new restrictions disappear, but actions taken during the term may also become harder to pursue.
Given all this, it feels like it can clear the first round, but if Trump doesn’t further compromise, the second round may be a close call.
The process is roughly like this:
1. September 15: the first cloture (60 votes)
This only ends the debate about whether to even talk. Passing it doesn’t mean the bill is already being amended.
2. Afterwards, up to about 30 hours
A vote will be held on whether to formally begin consideration. Passing it means you get onto the floor and can propose amendments.
3. Floor amendments
This isn’t limited to the first 30 hours; discussions could go on for days.
4. The second cloture (another 60 votes)
Estimated earliest in the second half of this week, but more likely next week. This is the final 60-vote step in the Senate; only after it passes can the Senate side be considered “very likely to wrap up.”
So, don’t pop the champagne just because it passes on the 15th—there’s still one more 😂
