The total downside depth of Bitcoin over the past two days barely amounts to 1,000 points. As I reminded everyone yesterday, after a period of normal market fluctuation, the second day is when returns typically come. Even stalling for a day is also to empty myself out a bit and lead the users along. Back to the analysis: there isn’t much more to say. The market’s movement is still under control. With Wall Street having already fully priced in the probability of rate hikes given massive capital, now all that remains is to see how many times Kevin Warsh is planning to raise rates. If Kevin Warsh doesn’t follow market rules and tries to challenge market expectations, you can refer to the previous Fed chair, Greenspan—when he unilaterally changed the rate path, the consequences were that the market slapped him hard: short-term bond yields surged, long-term yields lost control, and in the end he still had to bow to the market. I know many people say Trump will cut rates, so he definitely won’t raise rates. They also claim things like, “With $4 trillion in U.S. debt, they can’t possibly raise rates; if they do, they can’t pay the interest.” These arguments really don’t hold up under scrutiny. If he were genuinely bold enough not to raise rates, the market will show you—live—what liquidity drought looks like.

Any data can potentially be fabricated, but the market’s liquidity and the market’s value feedback—these two cannot be faked. There’s no need to delve too deeply into the rate-hike issue. The question we face now is whether we will enter a rate-hike cycle. Once a periodic rate-hike cycle arrives, Bitcoin’s depth will only become even deeper. For this meeting, everyone can look at the order-graph/chart; different forms of presentation will lead to different outcomes. Judging by oil prices, it’s hard to say for sure. Iran clearly doesn’t want Trump to have it easy. Capital flow in the crypto market is also quite interesting: more than a thousand Bitcoins are flowing into exchanges. Whether the intention is to stake or to sell still depends on the subsequent actions. It’s obvious that the giant whales are preparing to stage the fight for the bears. For those trading contracts, the focus over this period can return to the crypto market. Recently, the South Korean digital-asset bill has also been postponed until 2027. Everyone is waiting for the U.S.’s signal.

Lao Cui’s summary: Overall, everything is exactly the same as what we predicted earlier. In terms of market news and the technical side, things are still leaning toward the bears. The only thing is that the downward momentum isn’t that strong. The only situation that could cause a reversal in market conditions is the U.S.’s strategy—whether it’s a rate hike or the bill, both are clearly, in the short term, favorable to the bears. So shorting becomes the main theme. This situation won’t last too long. In the next couple of days, we’ll give everyone an answer. For those with a strong risk awareness, you can wait a bit. When volatility is intense, it doesn’t necessarily suit making profits. The best time to profit is to wait until after the news period, and then enter during the pullback phase. At least throughout this month, the market will maintain the current stance, and the depth will be even greater. There’s no need to rush right now. Lao Cui is only afraid that each of you will lose your chips during the fluctuations.