Came back after working overtime on the weekend and took a look—ETH is still stuck at 2476, and in the last 24 hours it dropped another 2%. Let’s put it another way: people on the forum today are once again filled with complaints. They say that 51 liquidations of long positions happened—deserved, because chasing longs is your own fault. I think that logic is interesting. Longs got liquidated 51.4M, while shorts were liquidated 10.5M—so it’s roughly five to one. So what, does it mean “the longs have been fully flushed out, so it should go up now” again? I’ve seen people use “shorts were educated” as a bullish reason a few days ago, and today it’s flipped around.
Honestly, I’ve seen this kind of argument too many times. Liquidation data is never a direction indicator; it’s a lagging one. You cut your losses first, and then the news comes. By the time you see the numbers, that group of people is already gone. Treating liquidation data as a turning-point signal is like using photos from the crash scene to judge whether the next intersection will cause you to collide—you’re not really making a forward-looking call. The data doesn’t lie; the mouths do.
As for ETH at this level, 2476, the 4-hour 60th percentile is only 26.9%—it’s weak in a very straightforward way. I’m not adding and I’m not running. With a 3100 cost basis I’m still down and it’s over 20%, at least worth more than 13 months’ salary. And this month’s salary was already paid in advance to the trapped positions. Live first, talk later. So I want to ask: do you think the drop won’t move anymore just because 51M longs got wiped, or do you think this is only the first wave?
Honestly, I’ve seen this kind of argument too many times. Liquidation data is never a direction indicator; it’s a lagging one. You cut your losses first, and then the news comes. By the time you see the numbers, that group of people is already gone. Treating liquidation data as a turning-point signal is like using photos from the crash scene to judge whether the next intersection will cause you to collide—you’re not really making a forward-looking call. The data doesn’t lie; the mouths do.
As for ETH at this level, 2476, the 4-hour 60th percentile is only 26.9%—it’s weak in a very straightforward way. I’m not adding and I’m not running. With a 3100 cost basis I’m still down and it’s over 20%, at least worth more than 13 months’ salary. And this month’s salary was already paid in advance to the trapped positions. Live first, talk later. So I want to ask: do you think the drop won’t move anymore just because 51M longs got wiped, or do you think this is only the first wave?