$TUT This 15m drop isn’t that deep—down 2.17%—but the structure is a bit interesting. When the price breaks below the lower edge of the recent 20 5m-range candles, both OI on the 15m and 1h are net decreasing. The notional change is one at -121K and the other at -102K.
That means this isn’t a sell-off from fresh shorts coming in; it’s more like longs are actively reducing positions and exiting. The active trade imbalance is -43.3% with a buy/sell ratio of 0.40. Selling pressure is real, but leverage-side isn’t adding new shorts—instead, it’s backing off.
What I’m most concerned about is that the OI abnormal percentile has already hit 99.0%. In the whole pool ( #2 ), the notional change ranks at #46—its abnormality level is maxed out, but the absolute volume isn’t that large. This combination usually indicates the position structure is crowded, but it hasn’t reached the point of large-scale liquidation yet.
First, let’s see whether it can reclaim this lower boundary. If it can’t, there may be another leg lower below.
That means this isn’t a sell-off from fresh shorts coming in; it’s more like longs are actively reducing positions and exiting. The active trade imbalance is -43.3% with a buy/sell ratio of 0.40. Selling pressure is real, but leverage-side isn’t adding new shorts—instead, it’s backing off.
What I’m most concerned about is that the OI abnormal percentile has already hit 99.0%. In the whole pool ( #2 ), the notional change ranks at #46—its abnormality level is maxed out, but the absolute volume isn’t that large. This combination usually indicates the position structure is crowded, but it hasn’t reached the point of large-scale liquidation yet.
First, let’s see whether it can reclaim this lower boundary. If it can’t, there may be another leg lower below.
