This editorial is from this week’s edition of the newsletter Week in Review, sent to subscribers on Friday. Subscribe to the newsletter to get this weekly editorial the second it’s finished. The newsletter also includes the biggest stories of the week, with a comment on each story.

From last Friday, bitcoin has moved lower, around -4% in total as of this Friday morning. U.S. equities closed lower every trading day so far this week, driven by rising oil prices, rising U.S. bond yields, and rising conflict in the Middle East.

The longer term outlook for bitcoin remains constructive. Bitcoin has reclaimed its 20, 50, and 200-week exponential moving averages, something that historically hasn’t been followed by new cycle lows. It also printed its first golden cross since May 2025, although Benjamin Cowen cautioned that these often precede corrections.

The 90-day correlation between bitcoin and gold is also approaching its 2020 record. Like yellow gold, digital gold is benefiting from the debasement narrative.

The geopolitical and macroeconomic risks addressed in last week’s newsletter appear to be nudging closer to the downside. Kinetic conflict in the Middle East increased this week, putting pressure on energy markets.

Reports of a possible Houthi pipeline attack, involving at least three drone strikes, put the Middle East back in focus. Qatar, which supplied roughly a fifth of global LNG before the war, is reportedly in talks to buy U.S. LNG. That’s a striking example of the degree of disruption. Diesel is rising, which matters to a lot of the real economy.
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