(Continuation 2 | Trading Outlook)
The most striking thing about this weekend: sentiment is still at “Greed 61,” while price is moving like “base-building before a rate hike.” It’s not that there are no buyers—buyers just don’t dare to add more.
My bias is simple—
1) The main driver is macro, not memes. Any rebound before Wednesday is treated as liquidity topping-up, not as the start of a trend.
2) Structure of $BTC : more than 80k attempts failed multiple times; only after 76.5k is lost do we talk about panic. If it holds, it just keeps ranging. If it breaks, first look at the psychological 75k level.
3) For $ETH : the weekend squeeze has already played out one round. Don’t rush to bottom-pick around 2500. ETF inflows look great, but that doesn’t necessarily mean spot can withstand the macro backdrop.
4) Institutional “buy crypto” news (MS / big whales) can only be treated as noise buffering—it can’t cover the selling pressure from FarSide’s 460 million BTC ETF.
5) Positioning: spot is lightly held to watch; for contracts, only trade narrow-stop-loss swings. That kind of short squeeze like LSK over the weekend—chasing in is basically handing liquidity your head.
For execution: I’d rather miss the first kick after Wednesday than be a bag-holder inside the 87% priced-in rate hike. Wait for the statement to land—what matters is whether they keep adding later, not who pumped 5% tonight.
The most striking thing about this weekend: sentiment is still at “Greed 61,” while price is moving like “base-building before a rate hike.” It’s not that there are no buyers—buyers just don’t dare to add more.
My bias is simple—
1) The main driver is macro, not memes. Any rebound before Wednesday is treated as liquidity topping-up, not as the start of a trend.
2) Structure of $BTC : more than 80k attempts failed multiple times; only after 76.5k is lost do we talk about panic. If it holds, it just keeps ranging. If it breaks, first look at the psychological 75k level.
3) For $ETH : the weekend squeeze has already played out one round. Don’t rush to bottom-pick around 2500. ETF inflows look great, but that doesn’t necessarily mean spot can withstand the macro backdrop.
4) Institutional “buy crypto” news (MS / big whales) can only be treated as noise buffering—it can’t cover the selling pressure from FarSide’s 460 million BTC ETF.
5) Positioning: spot is lightly held to watch; for contracts, only trade narrow-stop-loss swings. That kind of short squeeze like LSK over the weekend—chasing in is basically handing liquidity your head.
For execution: I’d rather miss the first kick after Wednesday than be a bag-holder inside the 87% priced-in rate hike. Wait for the statement to land—what matters is whether they keep adding later, not who pumped 5% tonight.