What’s worth watching is that Goldman Sachs also changed its tune.
In a Sept. 11 research note, chief U.S. economist David Mericle wrote that the firm now expects a 25bp FOMC rate hike over the two days ending Sept. 16; the earlier baseline was staying put. The trigger is the Aug. CPI released Friday morning—core month-over-month +0.3%, higher than the market’s expected +0.2%.
But the sticking point isn’t that “inflation suddenly turns.” Goldman Sachs itself said this CPI only slightly tweaks its August core PCE forecast to 0.26%, without changing its core inflation assessment. The change in wording feels more like communication with the market: CME FedWatch shows the probability of a rate hike next week has risen to nearly nine-tenths. If the Fed hard-stands and stays on hold, it could unleash even bigger volatility, and the FOMC may not be willing to take the blame for it.
The same-day U.S. stocks didn’t quite follow the script of “rate hikes = killing valuations” through to the end: the S&P 500 rose about 0.86% to 7,656.98, the Nasdaq was about +0.96%, and the Dow about +0.98%. While rate-hike expectations were quickly priced in, U.S. equities’ resilience is still there. More worth watching is whether the statement and the dot plot have written “one more kick” into the baseline. Even Goldman’s own baseline does not treat continued consecutive rate hikes as the main path.
For high-risk assets like $BTC , most of the binary “to hike or not to hike” has already been priced in. Volatility often comes from the wording—one-off action, or whether it opens a new window.
The above is compiled from public reports (Caixin’s summary of a Goldman research note, CME FedWatch, and U.S. stock closing data) and does not constitute investment advice.