To be honest, when the trap is right in front of you, the daily chart structure of $H actually makes me feel that the odds are quietly tilting. This pullback has shaken out a lot of the late buyers, but take a closer look at the daily-volume dynamics—during the sell-off, the volume didn’t keep expanding. Instead, in the past few days it has been contracting and consolidating. The price keeps grinding around at lows, yet it doesn’t make fresh new lows. This kind of move is something I’ve seen many times: a typical sign that selling pressure is running out. The last time, it popped up from the bottom and surged by a full three times, which shows the coin has elasticity and attracts real capital attention—it’s not the kind of dead water that no one cares about. Now the daily chart is starting to form an early rounded-bottom pattern. The right side hasn’t fully played out yet, but the bottoming base has clearly started to lift.
Some people will ask: if it keeps getting smashed down, will buyers be able to catch the falling orders? My view is that since it’s been hit hard, the turnover of holders has been充分—people trapped at higher levels who should have cut earlier have already done so. What’s left is either stubborn holders, or those who re-pick up near the lows. Once this kind of structure kicks in, the rally speed often exceeds expectations. The key logic has only two parts. First, volume-price divergence: as it’s declining, volume shrinks and it consolidates with shrinking volume too, which indicates the bears’ momentum is insufficient. Second, historical elasticity: it has the genes for a short-term blow-off rally, and the market’s memory is still there. As long as the daily chart confirms stabilization, capital returning won’t be weak.
At this point, the risk-reward ratio is favorable: there’s limited downside room, and once the upside opens up, it will be aimed straight at the previous high area.
Of course, building a base isn’t something that happens overnight. The daily chart still needs one more volume-expansion bullish candle to confirm the right side. That’s the signal I’m watching. Until it appears, I’ll keep observing; once it does, I’ll follow the momentum. Don’t get thrown off the train in the chop, and don’t go all-in gambling before the signal is confirmed. At this position, patience is worth more than impulse. #H
Beyond the mountains and seas in breadth, observe the market’s subtlety.
Walking with Uncle Xiong, see gains and losses from day to day.
Some people will ask: if it keeps getting smashed down, will buyers be able to catch the falling orders? My view is that since it’s been hit hard, the turnover of holders has been充分—people trapped at higher levels who should have cut earlier have already done so. What’s left is either stubborn holders, or those who re-pick up near the lows. Once this kind of structure kicks in, the rally speed often exceeds expectations. The key logic has only two parts. First, volume-price divergence: as it’s declining, volume shrinks and it consolidates with shrinking volume too, which indicates the bears’ momentum is insufficient. Second, historical elasticity: it has the genes for a short-term blow-off rally, and the market’s memory is still there. As long as the daily chart confirms stabilization, capital returning won’t be weak.
At this point, the risk-reward ratio is favorable: there’s limited downside room, and once the upside opens up, it will be aimed straight at the previous high area.
Of course, building a base isn’t something that happens overnight. The daily chart still needs one more volume-expansion bullish candle to confirm the right side. That’s the signal I’m watching. Until it appears, I’ll keep observing; once it does, I’ll follow the momentum. Don’t get thrown off the train in the chop, and don’t go all-in gambling before the signal is confirmed. At this position, patience is worth more than impulse. #H
Beyond the mountains and seas in breadth, observe the market’s subtlety.
Walking with Uncle Xiong, see gains and losses from day to day.