NVIDIA reportedly in talks for up to $10 billion—serving as a cornerstone investor for Anthropic’s IPO. To be confirmed.

This isn’t a typical financial investment: some analysts say Anthropic has committed to buying $30 billion worth of NVIDIA chip-powered cloud compute, with the money—used to buy cards—then going to purchase stock in a loop. The questions around this kind of circular financing are perhaps even more worth scrutinizing than the valuation itself.

On the other hand, OpenAI has just retired GPT-5.3-Codex-Spark. The official reason given was a decline in usage. It’s OpenAI’s first model to break away from NVIDIA, and it also marks the first delivery tied to Cerebras’ 750-megawatt deal.

Binance Research provides a set of hard numbers: the top companies’ capital expenditures as a share of operating cash flow rose from 41% in 2023 to about 105% by 2026, and cumulative free cash flow turns negative—gaps are filled with debt. AI trading is rotating from semiconductors toward software and capital markets.

So what’s being questioned about NVDA right now isn’t the orders, but whether the payer behind those orders can still generate its own cash flow. Tokenized NVDA holders’ 90-day gains rose 619.1% to 3.6 million—an on-chain diffusion of entry points, not confirmation of fundamentals.

If the AI arms race cools down, what will support 70%–80% gross margins? And is it that this $10 billion is merely tightening customer lock-in—and really doesn’t count as circular financing?

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