#Clarity法案9月15日程序性投票 《6 votes decide life or death, keep funds from being used as fuel on the decision night》
Liquidity is thin over the weekend, and bearish sentiment is strong. After the CPI, next week is only about two things: the Clarity Act and the Federal Reserve decision.
9·15 is the line between life and death: it requires 60 votes; you have 53. The key is 6 Democratic votes—see you early Wednesday morning. If it passes = compliant capital enters and a sharp rebound; if it fails = delayed liquidation and a selloff leading to a big drop. But regulators have made it clear this is only for forming a base, not for a rally.
The probability of a 25bp rate hike is 89%, with CPI/PPI coming in above expectations. The biggest risk isn’t the hike itself—it’s what Powell/Walsh say: hawkish remarks trigger a 638-point crash; dovish remarks mean the bearish news is already priced in, forcing a squeeze that runs against shorts. If there is no hike, shorts could first be squeezed, and then the market could guard against long liquidation.
The market’s daily and weekly trend rebounds lack strength. Watch 758, 718, and 638—bearish sentiment may release early. Remember: if rates truly aren’t hiked, it’s not candy—it’s a scythe. When good news lands, it first squeezes shorts, then kills longs.
With 6 votes, will it get approved, or just get delayed? Which side are you on?
#Clarity Act #BTC #ETH
Not investment advice.
Liquidity is thin over the weekend, and bearish sentiment is strong. After the CPI, next week is only about two things: the Clarity Act and the Federal Reserve decision.
9·15 is the line between life and death: it requires 60 votes; you have 53. The key is 6 Democratic votes—see you early Wednesday morning. If it passes = compliant capital enters and a sharp rebound; if it fails = delayed liquidation and a selloff leading to a big drop. But regulators have made it clear this is only for forming a base, not for a rally.
The probability of a 25bp rate hike is 89%, with CPI/PPI coming in above expectations. The biggest risk isn’t the hike itself—it’s what Powell/Walsh say: hawkish remarks trigger a 638-point crash; dovish remarks mean the bearish news is already priced in, forcing a squeeze that runs against shorts. If there is no hike, shorts could first be squeezed, and then the market could guard against long liquidation.
The market’s daily and weekly trend rebounds lack strength. Watch 758, 718, and 638—bearish sentiment may release early. Remember: if rates truly aren’t hiked, it’s not candy—it’s a scythe. When good news lands, it first squeezes shorts, then kills longs.
With 6 votes, will it get approved, or just get delayed? Which side are you on?
#Clarity Act #BTC #ETH
Not investment advice.
