I know everyone might not be in the mood to read too much text over the weekend, but oops—I ended up writing a bit too long anyway. Since I’ve written it, I’ll still post it! Here are two key points for next week. First, on Tuesday the 15th there will be a vote on the clarity bill. It needs 60 votes to pass and move on to the next stage. Second, on Wednesday there’s the FOMC meeting. First, regarding the clarity bill: currently, on prediction websites, the chance of passage is still only a bit over 20%. But this has already been priced into the market. So if it passes, it will be a pleasant surprise and a major positive. If it doesn’t pass, it also won’t be too unexpected, and the impact shouldn’t be too big.

Next is the rate-hike portion. To start with the conclusion: although the market’s expectation for rate hikes has already reached 87.3%, I personally still think they are unlikely to raise rates—or even if they do, it won’t be entering a rate-hiking cycle. The main cause of the current inflation problem is oil prices, due to an issue between Iran and the U.S. The more obvious signal is that once oil prices break above the $100 mark, you can basically see both sides’ attitudes soften again. That’s also why Trump is very likely to go to TACO.

Also, Iran on Monday will have a meeting with the Gulf countries, and there may be a chance for some gradual opening of the Strait of Hormuz. As long as oil prices start falling again from around $100, the possibility of consecutive rate hikes will be very low. So right now, it could instead become that in September even if they raise rates, it has already been priced in by the market—after all, it’s already close to 90% expectation. Then if there isn’t any expectation of consecutive rate hikes in October, that would actually be the moment where the “shoe drops,” so to speak.

Next, let’s get back to BTC. For now, including the area of the 365-day moving average and the 50-week moving average, price is being blocked at the first moment there, and the pullback that follows is also completely normal and healthy. In the short term, things are still oscillating within the range of 76,000~79,300. We haven’t yet entered the stage of a pullback specifically after that big surge. What we care about most right now is still the way price is taking on a large-scale, step-by-step advance. Once the structure is worked out, 74,000~72,000 will be the right-side opportunity I’m very much looking forward to getting in. Then we’ll look at opportunities for large-lot long positions as well as filling up the remaining spot orders. Keep a good rhythm.

Also, ETH’s recent performance really has been relatively quite good. In recent weeks, I’ve also been telling everyone about some massive whale activity on the Ethereum chain, so I don’t think it would be too surprising. For the short term, the most important thing is the key range above at 2720~2811. This is a very critical level. So of course, the resistance here is also not small—it may require multiple attempts and digestion before it can break through. It’s easy to leave a lot of upper shadows, which is pretty normal, just like the previous two waves. So everyone also needs to keep the rhythm, knowing where the resistance is and where it’s likely to pull back to.

Lastly, don’t forget: once the overall trend direction is established, it’s basically very hard to change. My latest video also talked deeply about this— even if rate hikes happen, the bull market won’t just disappear for that reason. It’s the same as the previous cycle, and back in 2017 as well: even when the broader environment was raising rates, it still resulted in that kind of market. Don’t let yourselves be affected by some random noise in the market. Keep a good rhythm.

I wonder how many people have the patience to finish reading all these words 😂. Have a great weekend!