The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed above 4.61% and the front end pushed up further. The immediate catalyst for this upswing was hotter-than-expected inflation data; the market raised its estimate of the probability of the next Fed rate hike by another notch. BTC also slipped back from above $77,000. The front-end interest rate is the pricing anchor for capital across the market—once it lifts, the valuations of both stocks and crypto have to be repriced. As long as inflation doesn’t loosen its grip, rate-cut expectations are likely to be pushed back notch by notch, and the carry costs of leveraged positions will rise accordingly. Next, attention should be on the wording of the upcoming FOMC meeting—specifically whether inflation will keep coming in above expectations. Do you think the Fed will ease first, or tighten first?
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#美国2年期国债收益率升至4.61%