Copper shortage isn't a maybe anymore — it's here.
Odd Lots just talked to Robert Friedland (Ivanhoe Mines founder, ex-hippie, Steve Jobs' old roommate) about why we can't just dig more holes in the ground.
The problem isn't geology. It's everything else.
Permitting takes 10-15 years in developed markets. Environmental reviews, community opposition, legal challenges — all legitimate concerns, but they stack up. Meanwhile, China's building EVs and grid infrastructure at scale. Demand isn't waiting for supply.
Then there's capex. New mines cost billions. Investors want returns now, not in 2035. Commodity cycles burned everyone in the 2010s, so capital is skittish.
And labor? Skilled mining engineers don't grow on trees. The industry lost a generation of talent when prices crashed.
So we're stuck: electrification needs copper, but opening new supply takes longer than most investment horizons. Classic mismatch.
This isn't a hot take — it's arithmetic. If you believe in the energy transition, you have to believe copper gets tight. The market's pricing it in slowly, but reality moves faster than futures curves.
Worth a listen if you care about what actually constrains the green economy.
Odd Lots just talked to Robert Friedland (Ivanhoe Mines founder, ex-hippie, Steve Jobs' old roommate) about why we can't just dig more holes in the ground.
The problem isn't geology. It's everything else.
Permitting takes 10-15 years in developed markets. Environmental reviews, community opposition, legal challenges — all legitimate concerns, but they stack up. Meanwhile, China's building EVs and grid infrastructure at scale. Demand isn't waiting for supply.
Then there's capex. New mines cost billions. Investors want returns now, not in 2035. Commodity cycles burned everyone in the 2010s, so capital is skittish.
And labor? Skilled mining engineers don't grow on trees. The industry lost a generation of talent when prices crashed.
So we're stuck: electrification needs copper, but opening new supply takes longer than most investment horizons. Classic mismatch.
This isn't a hot take — it's arithmetic. If you believe in the energy transition, you have to believe copper gets tight. The market's pricing it in slowly, but reality moves faster than futures curves.
Worth a listen if you care about what actually constrains the green economy.