#美国8月通胀维持3.4%
👉 核心数据的两面，群里聊
U.S. August core inflation drops to a 66-month low, with the year-on-year reading in the most moderate band in nearly five and a half years 📉
But monthly month-over-month rose 0.4%, pushing the rate-hike probability up to 85%.
First, separate the two gauges.
Core CPI strips out energy and food, reflecting underlying price dynamics. In the headline CPI, oil prices and rent keep the numbers propped up—declines don’t feel that painless.
What matters is how the forward market is pricing. A week ago, the probability of a September rate hike was just a little over 40%; now it’s at 85%. The traders’ positioning has been forced to be adjusted by this data.
For crypto, falling core inflation is a medium-term tailwind, while a higher rate-hike probability is a short-term headwind. The two forces collide, and price gets stuck grinding back and forth in the middle. Once the inflation data comes out in two weeks, the direction will become clear. In the short term, watch the bond market; in the medium term, watch employment. When both sides are fighting, the trading value is at its lowest.
Do you think this data is the turning point for inflation—or another false move? Let’s discuss in the comments.
👉 核心数据的两面，群里聊
U.S. August core inflation drops to a 66-month low, with the year-on-year reading in the most moderate band in nearly five and a half years 📉
But monthly month-over-month rose 0.4%, pushing the rate-hike probability up to 85%.
First, separate the two gauges.
Core CPI strips out energy and food, reflecting underlying price dynamics. In the headline CPI, oil prices and rent keep the numbers propped up—declines don’t feel that painless.
What matters is how the forward market is pricing. A week ago, the probability of a September rate hike was just a little over 40%; now it’s at 85%. The traders’ positioning has been forced to be adjusted by this data.
For crypto, falling core inflation is a medium-term tailwind, while a higher rate-hike probability is a short-term headwind. The two forces collide, and price gets stuck grinding back and forth in the middle. Once the inflation data comes out in two weeks, the direction will become clear. In the short term, watch the bond market; in the medium term, watch employment. When both sides are fighting, the trading value is at its lowest.
Do you think this data is the turning point for inflation—or another false move? Let’s discuss in the comments.
