#美国8月通胀维持3.4%
👉 工资这条线，群里聊通胀
US August inflation holds at 3.4%, and wage growth still won’t loosen 📊
ADP’s weekly jobs added are only 120,000, significantly slower than the past few weeks. Companies are hiring at a reduced pace, but pay isn’t falling along with it.
First, look at the employment structure. New openings are concentrated in small businesses and the services sector, while manufacturing is still cutting jobs. Hiring freezes at large firms are expanding.
The tricky part is this: companies would rather hire fewer people than lower wages. Wages are the foundation for service prices. If that doesn’t move, the “final mile” of core inflation will progress more slowly.
What’s worth watching is the Fed’s choice. Employment is cooling, while wages are sticky—both forces are pulling in different directions. Next week’s meeting will likely remain on hold, with the timeline pushed back.
For crypto, cooling employment is usually a positive factor for rate cuts. But with wage stickiness holding it up, the probability of near-term implementation is discounted. The direction stays the same, but the pace slows.
Do you think employment cooling will lead to rate cuts first, or will it first drag down risk assets? Let’s discuss in the comments.
👉 工资这条线，群里聊通胀
US August inflation holds at 3.4%, and wage growth still won’t loosen 📊
ADP’s weekly jobs added are only 120,000, significantly slower than the past few weeks. Companies are hiring at a reduced pace, but pay isn’t falling along with it.
First, look at the employment structure. New openings are concentrated in small businesses and the services sector, while manufacturing is still cutting jobs. Hiring freezes at large firms are expanding.
The tricky part is this: companies would rather hire fewer people than lower wages. Wages are the foundation for service prices. If that doesn’t move, the “final mile” of core inflation will progress more slowly.
What’s worth watching is the Fed’s choice. Employment is cooling, while wages are sticky—both forces are pulling in different directions. Next week’s meeting will likely remain on hold, with the timeline pushed back.
For crypto, cooling employment is usually a positive factor for rate cuts. But with wage stickiness holding it up, the probability of near-term implementation is discounted. The direction stays the same, but the pace slows.
Do you think employment cooling will lead to rate cuts first, or will it first drag down risk assets? Let’s discuss in the comments.
