#原油涨至7月来最高
👉 油价与加密的联动，群里聊
Crude oil has risen to its highest level since July this week, closing above $100 per barrel ⛽
Energy stocks followed the rise. U.S. average crude prices also climbed above $6 per gallon for the first time. The numbers on gas station signs have changed.
First, lay out the chain. Geopolitical risks push up oil prices; higher oil prices raise transportation and chemical costs; and higher costs lift inflation expectations. Once expectations rise, the timetable for rate cuts is pushed back. This chain has been run through several times over the past two years.
The pain is at both ends. Upstream oil-producing countries reap cash flow, while downstream consumer countries end up paying more on their bills. The U.S. is a net exporter, so on paper it isn’t as hard-hit, but gasoline prices are a voting issue, and policy pressure will arrive first.
For crypto, the medium-term relationship between oil prices and Bitcoin is negative. Elevated oil prices squeeze the room for real interest rates, and they also cap investors’ risk appetite. Historically, around the time oil prices top, Bitcoin only then shows a decent trend. The lag between them is a few months—not a few days—so adjust your position sizing accordingly. Energy stocks and oil prices are more directly linked; the linkage is quicker than that of adding crypto.
Do you think this round of oil prices will top first, or that inflation will turn around first? Let’s discuss in the comments.
👉 油价与加密的联动，群里聊
Crude oil has risen to its highest level since July this week, closing above $100 per barrel ⛽
Energy stocks followed the rise. U.S. average crude prices also climbed above $6 per gallon for the first time. The numbers on gas station signs have changed.
First, lay out the chain. Geopolitical risks push up oil prices; higher oil prices raise transportation and chemical costs; and higher costs lift inflation expectations. Once expectations rise, the timetable for rate cuts is pushed back. This chain has been run through several times over the past two years.
The pain is at both ends. Upstream oil-producing countries reap cash flow, while downstream consumer countries end up paying more on their bills. The U.S. is a net exporter, so on paper it isn’t as hard-hit, but gasoline prices are a voting issue, and policy pressure will arrive first.
For crypto, the medium-term relationship between oil prices and Bitcoin is negative. Elevated oil prices squeeze the room for real interest rates, and they also cap investors’ risk appetite. Historically, around the time oil prices top, Bitcoin only then shows a decent trend. The lag between them is a few months—not a few days—so adjust your position sizing accordingly. Energy stocks and oil prices are more directly linked; the linkage is quicker than that of adding crypto.
Do you think this round of oil prices will top first, or that inflation will turn around first? Let’s discuss in the comments.
