$CL Trump directly called for the war to end soon, and oil prices are set to plunge!
Tensions in the U.S.-Iran conflict are showing renewed signs of cooling.
The risk premium tied to the Strait of Hormuz could be squeezed out!
Inflation and yield-pressure will also ease along the way.
Once this thesis plays out, it’s a major positive for risk assets!
Trump has once again released an optimistic signal, saying the U.S.-Iran war could end quite soon, and that once the conflict is over, oil prices will quickly fall. He has also repeatedly emphasized that energy prices would drop significantly after the war ends, but this still remains his expectation for now; a true ceasefire and the restoration of supply still require further confirmation.
What the market most wants to see is actually the next link in the chain: war cooling → crude oil falling → easing inflation pressure → U.S. Treasury yields loosening → U.S. stocks and Crypto getting room to breathe again. Especially now, oil prices have become a key variable for global central banks turning more hawkish; as long as the geopolitical premium is truly squeezed out, the macro headwind for BTC will be noticeably reduced.
Ending the war is just the first domino. Oil prices are the piece the market is really watching.
If crude oil really gets hammered down, BTC and high-beta assets will likely be the first to benefit from liquidity repair!
$BTC $ETH
Tensions in the U.S.-Iran conflict are showing renewed signs of cooling.
The risk premium tied to the Strait of Hormuz could be squeezed out!
Inflation and yield-pressure will also ease along the way.
Once this thesis plays out, it’s a major positive for risk assets!
Trump has once again released an optimistic signal, saying the U.S.-Iran war could end quite soon, and that once the conflict is over, oil prices will quickly fall. He has also repeatedly emphasized that energy prices would drop significantly after the war ends, but this still remains his expectation for now; a true ceasefire and the restoration of supply still require further confirmation.
What the market most wants to see is actually the next link in the chain: war cooling → crude oil falling → easing inflation pressure → U.S. Treasury yields loosening → U.S. stocks and Crypto getting room to breathe again. Especially now, oil prices have become a key variable for global central banks turning more hawkish; as long as the geopolitical premium is truly squeezed out, the macro headwind for BTC will be noticeably reduced.
Ending the war is just the first domino. Oil prices are the piece the market is really watching.
If crude oil really gets hammered down, BTC and high-beta assets will likely be the first to benefit from liquidity repair!
$BTC $ETH
