Split on $ORCL after Friday.
The business is strong — revenue +30%, cloud infra +121%, backlog ~$664B, guidance raised to at least $90B. AI demand is real and that's bullish for the story.
But I'm less excited on the stock here. CapEx hit ~$28.5B in one quarter, FCF still negative, and they're guiding $90–95B CapEx for the year. That funding story is why it ripped early (~+7–8%) then closed ~$150 (−1.7%). Classic — growth looks great, the check to build it doesn't.
Friday felt better for $DELL and $HPE than $ORCL. Market rewarded the suppliers, not the spender.
Watching $150 into Fed week. If CapEx keeps spooking people, this stays heavy even with strong numbers.
The business is strong — revenue +30%, cloud infra +121%, backlog ~$664B, guidance raised to at least $90B. AI demand is real and that's bullish for the story.
But I'm less excited on the stock here. CapEx hit ~$28.5B in one quarter, FCF still negative, and they're guiding $90–95B CapEx for the year. That funding story is why it ripped early (~+7–8%) then closed ~$150 (−1.7%). Classic — growth looks great, the check to build it doesn't.
Friday felt better for $DELL and $HPE than $ORCL. Market rewarded the suppliers, not the spender.
Watching $150 into Fed week. If CapEx keeps spooking people, this stays heavy even with strong numbers.
