September 11, and once again macro conditions have overridden the narrative. PPI runs hot, oil prices both break through the $100 mark, Bitcoin falls below $77,000, and on-chain liquidity retreats in tandem.
Although the August monthly line for BTC is still up by nearly 25%, it has kept stalling at $82,000 and can’t break upward. Tonight’s CPI, next week’s FOMC—macro conditions are already stormy and unstable, while the crypto market itself still has the Clarity Act pending.
The question is direct and clear: is this market action a healthy pullback after the cycle has flipped, is it a golden pit dug by rate-hike narratives, or is it the tail end that hasn’t finished yet after the climax?
The editor has sorted representative KOL views into three schools of thought recently ⬇️
📈 Bullish: The trend is still there; pullbacks are pricing belief.
1⃣ Tom Lee @fundstrat
| BitMine Chairman | XHunt global ranking: 188
🔥 Call: The more the market fears a “Red September,” the more likely it is to turn into a contrarian行情; crypto is the strongest FOMO asset before year-end.
💡 Viewpoint:
👉 Consensus already priced in rate hikes, AI headwinds, and seasonality in advance; this kind of crowded pessimism is itself a contrarian signal.
👉 The rate decision on Sept 15–16 is the direction switch; if the Fed holds steady, stocks and crypto could both strengthen.
👉 In crypto history, it has been roughly a month ahead of the S&P.
2⃣ Yi Li Hua @Jackyi_ld
| Founder of Liquid Capital | XHunt global ranking: 1615
🔥 Call: The bull market trend has already begun; this round is a right-upward adjustment (inclination), not a reversal—at least until 2028.
💡 Viewpoint:
👉 BTC support: 755,000 to 763,000; near-term resistance: 823,000; upper resistance: 860,000. If it can’t break strongly above 860,000, only then can we talk about a pullback in this segment.
👉 On the Robinhood chain, ZEC, and tokenized trading tokens, there’s a partial bull run; it feels like it’s “the night before the 2020狂暴 bull market.” For this round, look for BTC/ETH to move at least 3x; ETH’s elasticity is greater than BTC’s.
3⃣ Hawkish Capital @thankUcrypto
| Top Trader | XHunt global ranking: 1643
🔥 Call: Big cake (BTC) has been bullish for a long time; this round still trades within the bull-market framework—just with smaller positions and switching targets.
💡 Viewpoint:
👉 Let positions speak. Hawkish says its leverage has already come down: BTC ~5x, ETH ~3x, HYPE ~2x; alts no more than 0.5x. The goal is to fully eat the whole round—don’t end it so quickly.
⚖️ Golden Pit camp: Bearish in the short term, bullish long term
1⃣ Bruce J @BTCBruce1
| XHunt global ranking: 1840
🔥 Call: There’s almost no suspense about a +25bp in September; if it really does +50bp, that would actually be a bargain.
💡 Viewpoint:
👉 September rate hike is the baseline scenario; adding 50bp is also possible.
👉 A one-off +50bp: panic will finish first—only that slice is where you can pick up a bargain.
👉 If it’s only +25bp, there’s a high chance of another hike by late October; before year-end it’ll be up and down.
👉 Hand the short term to interest rates; for the medium term, I’m more optimistic after the midterm election.
2⃣ TraderS｜The Dishonorable Daoist
@TraderS18
| XHunt global ranking: 4188
🔥 Call: PPI and oil prices with the double break-above-100 have already given CPI the answer; if you dodge it in September, you can’t dodge it in October.
💡 Viewpoint:
👉 The market has already fully priced in “rate hikes before October”; guessing with hand-wringing is meaningless.
👉 Trade only watches oil price—oil price is the ultimate big boss of all risk assets.
When oil rises, all other assets have to absorb the pressure.
👉 Buy points: wait until “consecutive rate hikes, twice within the year” to smash the golden pit.
3⃣ shu fen
@shufen46250836
| XHunt global ranking: 8210
🔥 Call: Expect two rate hikes this year, total +50bp; the first hike isn’t the end of the move.
💡 Viewpoint:
👉 The first rate hike doesn’t mean the trend has ended; only consecutive hikes will truly hurt risk assets.
👉 Oil prices around 100 USD are not the norm; after oil falls and inflation reverts to the mean, policy still needs to return to rate cuts. If a September rate hike triggers a drastic adjustment, that’s a golden pit.
📉 Bearish camp: The rebound is distribution; the bottom hasn’t finished yet.
1⃣ Garrett Jin
@GarrettBullish
| Agent of “10.11 insider mega whales” | XHunt global ranking: 2558
🔥 Call: 82,500 didn’t break through; the consolidation might not even finish half of the cycle—there’s still about a 70% probability that the cycle bottom is at around 60,000.
💡 Viewpoint:
👉 Last week’s 82,300 was a failed breakout; spot buy orders can’t absorb the sell pressure above 82,000.
👉 If it can’t hold, look for 760,000 to 770,000 first; below that, 740,000 to 750,000; the key demand is at 720,000 to 725,000.
👉 By year-end, the macro can be somewhat constructive; but in the short term, risk must be reduced—the price rising is crowded positioning, not pricing of a trend that has already been completed.
2⃣ Jocy Lin
@jocyiosg
| IOSG founding partner XHunt global ranking: 3732
🔥 Call: The four-year cycle is again overpowering all the complicated narratives; the bottom window may still be in October.
💡 Viewpoint:
👉 Even with more macro positives, it couldn’t prevent the bear market after the top was seen in October 2025.
👉 Follow-up scenario one: By late October this year, it probes the low around 45,000 to 60,000.
👉 Follow-up scenario two: Drag it out to Q1–Q2 of 2027, and you’ll see 40,000 to 55,000. August looks more like a liquidity pulse inside a bear market.
3⃣ Bitbei Jin
@roger73005305
| XHunt global ranking: 7706
🔥 Call: Above 80,000 is the main camp distributing; the current is a false bottom— the real bottom needs to wait until November to January next year.
💡 Viewpoint:
👉 This rebound is a false bottom; the pattern will be a bottoming process (a W or a triple bottom), not a single needle.
👉 Around Sept 5 is marked as the rebound peak; afterward, market makers kept withdrawing liquidity with no signs of replenishment.
👉 After the sell-off on Sept 10, the short-side energy is far stronger than the long side; BTC funds are still mostly flowing out.
👉 Trading discipline: Only copy trade in Q4 or at year-end; not chasing now.
⭐ Summary:
📊 Put these three camps back into the same pricing table to judge more accurately: the crypto market is already in a consolidation phase; the next direction urgently depends on macro data stimulating liquidity to choose the next move.
Just like what artist @CryptoPainter analyzed this morning for BTC’s 4h channel ⬇️
Whether the market goes up or down ultimately still needs price and premium to resonate together.