▍ Price can be misleading, but on-chain address counts won’t be.

▍ Key framework points

1. Active addresses rising + price falling = someone is quietly buying in; this is a noteworthy potential divergence.

2. Active addresses keep falling = even if the price is still rising, it’s a low-volume rally; when it drops, that’s when it’s really dangerous.

3. Look at "New Addresses" rather than "Total Addresses" — the total address count is always going up, so it explains nothing.

▍ Practice today (interactive): Open any on-chain data tool, record today’s number of active addresses for Bitcoin and Ethereum, then compare it with seven days ago.

💧 Tide-watching The price of a duck floating on the water is what you see; the on-chain data is what’s underneath. Don’t just look at the feathers—watch the feet.