#CPIWatch Bet on the Federal Reserve rate hold (HOLD) 👀
The August jobs data showed strong performance at 162K, and the unemployment rate remains at 4.1%.
Many now expect that the rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will push the Federal Reserve to hike again.
But I’m not convinced.
The core CPI is expected to print at only 0.2% month-over-month (MoM). The headline figure could rise to 0.4% due to higher energy prices, but unless core CPI comes in hot, I don’t see a strong reason for the Fed to raise rates again.
The Fed just cut rates. If there’s another hike at this pace, it would look like an excessively reactive policy shift.
My bet: hold rates at 3.50%–3.75%.
If CPI data comes in hot → I expect a short-term drop in risk assets.
If CPI cools → I think gold will stay strong, and markets may be able to breathe a little.
For now, I’ll continue holding my gold position $XAU , and I’ll be patient while U.S. stocks confirm the momentum
The August jobs data showed strong performance at 162K, and the unemployment rate remains at 4.1%.
Many now expect that the rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will push the Federal Reserve to hike again.
But I’m not convinced.
The core CPI is expected to print at only 0.2% month-over-month (MoM). The headline figure could rise to 0.4% due to higher energy prices, but unless core CPI comes in hot, I don’t see a strong reason for the Fed to raise rates again.
The Fed just cut rates. If there’s another hike at this pace, it would look like an excessively reactive policy shift.
My bet: hold rates at 3.50%–3.75%.
If CPI data comes in hot → I expect a short-term drop in risk assets.
If CPI cools → I think gold will stay strong, and markets may be able to breathe a little.
For now, I’ll continue holding my gold position $XAU , and I’ll be patient while U.S. stocks confirm the momentum
