$MORPHO This drop is kind of interesting.
On the 15m chart it directly dumped by 1.44%. Trading volume reached 2.65x, and the close even fell below the lower boundary of the past 20 5m periods. With these signals stacked together, the short-term breakdown is effectively confirmed.
But what really made me look twice wasn’t the price—it was the OI. On the 15m contract, OI was down 0.09%; on the 1h, it was down 0.34%. Notional value dropped by more than 300k U. When price falls and OI also falls, this isn’t like fresh shorts rushing in to smash the market. It looks more like the longs are unable to hold on and are withdrawing—their stop-lossing and deleveraging, essentially shrinking positions, not adding to short exposure.
Active trade imbalance: -27.1%; buy/sell ratio: 0.57. Sell-side pressure is indeed noticeably stronger. However, the OI percentile anomaly hit 95.6%, ranking 6th in the whole pool—which in itself is already extremely extreme.
My take: this kind of structure often appears in the tail end of panic deleveraging, not as the starting point of a trend-driven short. In other words, yes, it’s dropping—but the chips are rotating and changing hands, not endlessly being poured downward.
Next I’ll watch two things—when OI stops falling and stabilizes, and when the active buy/sell ratio climbs back above 0.8. If both show up at the same time, it could be the signal that this round of deleveraging is over.
Of course, a breakdown is a breakdown—don’t rush to catch it. Wait for confirmation.
On the 15m chart it directly dumped by 1.44%. Trading volume reached 2.65x, and the close even fell below the lower boundary of the past 20 5m periods. With these signals stacked together, the short-term breakdown is effectively confirmed.
But what really made me look twice wasn’t the price—it was the OI. On the 15m contract, OI was down 0.09%; on the 1h, it was down 0.34%. Notional value dropped by more than 300k U. When price falls and OI also falls, this isn’t like fresh shorts rushing in to smash the market. It looks more like the longs are unable to hold on and are withdrawing—their stop-lossing and deleveraging, essentially shrinking positions, not adding to short exposure.
Active trade imbalance: -27.1%; buy/sell ratio: 0.57. Sell-side pressure is indeed noticeably stronger. However, the OI percentile anomaly hit 95.6%, ranking 6th in the whole pool—which in itself is already extremely extreme.
My take: this kind of structure often appears in the tail end of panic deleveraging, not as the starting point of a trend-driven short. In other words, yes, it’s dropping—but the chips are rotating and changing hands, not endlessly being poured downward.
Next I’ll watch two things—when OI stops falling and stabilizes, and when the active buy/sell ratio climbs back above 0.8. If both show up at the same time, it could be the signal that this round of deleveraging is over.
Of course, a breakdown is a breakdown—don’t rush to catch it. Wait for confirmation.