Should there be a rate hike in September? After the CPI is released, the answer has become clearer and clearer:
Market expectations for a rate hike in September have been pushed directly to around 90%.
What’s even more extreme is that the market now has fully priced in that the Federal Reserve will raise rates one more time before the end of the year.
For crypto in the short term, this is definitely not a comfortable macro environment.
Because as rate-hike expectations continue to heat up, it means there is further upward pressure on the US dollar and US Treasury yields, and the valuations of risk assets will also be suppressed.
But I think the market has already priced in so many rate-hike expectations in advance—when the real decision comes, how much of an expectation gap is still left?
If later on the US dollar and US Treasury yields keep rising, the pressure on crypto will be fairly obvious.
But if rate-hike expectations have already been fully priced and the subsequent data does not keep worsening, the market may instead see an expectation reset.
So what’s most taboo right now is seeing a 90% rate-hike probability and simply concluding that crypto must definitely fall.
Markets never trade the news itself,
but the difference between the news and expectations.
$ETH
#CPI数据来袭能否触发9月加息
Market expectations for a rate hike in September have been pushed directly to around 90%.
What’s even more extreme is that the market now has fully priced in that the Federal Reserve will raise rates one more time before the end of the year.
For crypto in the short term, this is definitely not a comfortable macro environment.
Because as rate-hike expectations continue to heat up, it means there is further upward pressure on the US dollar and US Treasury yields, and the valuations of risk assets will also be suppressed.
But I think the market has already priced in so many rate-hike expectations in advance—when the real decision comes, how much of an expectation gap is still left?
If later on the US dollar and US Treasury yields keep rising, the pressure on crypto will be fairly obvious.
But if rate-hike expectations have already been fully priced and the subsequent data does not keep worsening, the market may instead see an expectation reset.
So what’s most taboo right now is seeing a 90% rate-hike probability and simply concluding that crypto must definitely fall.
Markets never trade the news itself,
but the difference between the news and expectations.
$ETH
#CPI数据来袭能否触发9月加息