Well, the rally has happened, but it feels like it was done half-heartedly—just when the price put on the short moving average, four-hour momentum already ruled it had run out. Even the futures positions for the contract are still shrinking back day by day. On the spot side, net active trades are on the seller’s side, and even the basis has been pinned below the waterline. Since the peak three days ago, it has fallen more than twenty percent; we’ve ground along until now and still haven’t even claw back a third. The low is right there at our feet, and it’s only a step away from the historical lows. This $SCR contract is held down so tightly it makes people feel chilled—bulls won’t even pay a penny of premium. The funding rate is stuck dead on the zero line. For this kind of bounce, I’m calling it a short. Whoever wants to catch it, let them catch it.