After the latest U.S. CPI inflation data was released, major Wall Street institutions and analysts quickly launched a fierce debate over the Federal Reserve’s next policy path. Industry experts including Seema Shah, Chief Strategist at Principal Asset Management, and David Rees, Global Economist at Schroders, noted that because core inflation persistence remains higher than expected, the swap market’s probability of a rate hike next week has surged to 90% and has even begun pricing an aggressive scenario of two hikes within the year.
This shift in expectations is crucial. Although some views—such as those from Goldman Sachs strategist Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo—suggest the CPI is largely in line with expectations, investors must be cautious: this period’s data has not fully captured the recent rise in energy prices and the spillover effects from commodities. Against the backdrop of inflation staying above the target level for the long run, the “rate-cut cycle” that the market had hoped for is facing a serious test of being delayed or even reversed. The risk of the Fed being forced to maintain an extremely hawkish stance is rising significantly.
As a result, macro financial markets have entered a highly sensitive phase of tightening repricing. Large moves in the short-term interest rate swap market have lifted the U.S. Treasury yield curve, and the U.S. dollar index has remained strong, supported by expectations of further tightening. Persistently high borrowing costs are putting heavy liquidity discount pressure on equities and traditional risk assets; even a modest upside surprise in economic data could trigger additional upward pressure on risk-free rates.
For the crypto asset market, represented by $BTC , the macro liquidity environment tightening again is undoubtedly a direct headwind. With risk-free yields staying elevated, speculative capital and institutional inflows are being blocked, and spot liquidity is trending toward exhaustion. Investors need to be wary of market deleveraging pressures triggered by strengthening rate-hike expectations, and remain defensive until the macro path becomes clearer.📉
#美联储 #CPI #Inflation
This shift in expectations is crucial. Although some views—such as those from Goldman Sachs strategist Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo—suggest the CPI is largely in line with expectations, investors must be cautious: this period’s data has not fully captured the recent rise in energy prices and the spillover effects from commodities. Against the backdrop of inflation staying above the target level for the long run, the “rate-cut cycle” that the market had hoped for is facing a serious test of being delayed or even reversed. The risk of the Fed being forced to maintain an extremely hawkish stance is rising significantly.
As a result, macro financial markets have entered a highly sensitive phase of tightening repricing. Large moves in the short-term interest rate swap market have lifted the U.S. Treasury yield curve, and the U.S. dollar index has remained strong, supported by expectations of further tightening. Persistently high borrowing costs are putting heavy liquidity discount pressure on equities and traditional risk assets; even a modest upside surprise in economic data could trigger additional upward pressure on risk-free rates.
For the crypto asset market, represented by $BTC , the macro liquidity environment tightening again is undoubtedly a direct headwind. With risk-free yields staying elevated, speculative capital and institutional inflows are being blocked, and spot liquidity is trending toward exhaustion. Investors need to be wary of market deleveraging pressures triggered by strengthening rate-hike expectations, and remain defensive until the macro path becomes clearer.📉
#美联储 #CPI #Inflation