🚨 CPI FROM THE USA: THE DATA CAME IN BAD, BUT NOT AS BAD AS | Ualifi Araújo on Binance Square

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--Bullish

🚨 CPI FROM THE USA: THE DATA CAME IN BAD, BUT NOT AS BAD AS WE THOUGHT.

The monthly CPI came in at 0.4%, exactly in line with the forecast. The annual figure also came in as expected, at 3.4%. Here, the market was expecting something worse, but that’s not what we got.

The issue is with core CPI:

0.3% for the month
Forecast: 0.2%

That means underlying inflation came in above expectations, showing that inflationary pressures are still stronger than the market would like.

This is negative for rate cuts, but since we’re not talking about CUTS anymore and it’s only about NOT increasing them, it should still be enough for the Fed to keep things as they are.

And there’s an important detail: the market had already been pricing in a meaningful POSSIBILITY OF a RATE HIKE—not simply a cut.

The Crypto market should be a bit undecided about direction, but as things become clearer regarding the Fed’s situation, we should see the #BTC ind going to $82K next week.

At some point, the Bulls will have to start ignoring this data, so we can move higher in a more solid and faster way.

Ualifi Araújo

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Bullish

AS THINGS ROLLED OVER TO THE FED!

Today’s data in the US does nothing to help with the Fed rate cut at next week’s Fed meeting.

Let’s see how it came in...

1) August PPI (wholesale prices):
- Up 0.4% month-on-month... exactly as expected, but well above July’s 0.1%

- Over the last 12 months, it rose to 5.4%

- Goods jumped 1.1%, driven by energy and diesel

- Core (excluding food and energy) came in at 0.2%, slightly below the 0.3% projected—the only “less bad” point

Initial jobless claims:
- 206K vs 205K expected, but still lower than the prior figure.

- Practically flat. The labor market isn’t cracking.

Why this is bad for a cut:

1. Warsh already warned at Jackson Hole that inflation needs to come down clearly and quickly. A slightly weaker core doesn’t erase 65 months above the 2% target.

2. The full PPI accelerated. Costs at the source (energy, freight, inputs) are still rising. That leaks into the consumer with a lag.

3. Unemployment remains low. Without job deterioration, the Fed has no excuse to loosen.

The real debate now isn’t about a cut—it’s become clear there’s no way to do it—but depending on how tomorrow’s data comes in, we may still see Warsh KEEPING rates where they are, which in my view would already be a win here.

Tomorrow the CPI prints. That’s the one that will set the tone for the September 15-16 meeting.

Current odds of a hike are at 60%—a 60% chance.

Markets hated the data, and the #BTC al widening drop that was already unfolding from yesterday, with the situation around Hormuz.

We’re getting to $76K very quickly—that’s where the Bulls will need to do a good job.

Personally, I still doubt we’ll see a hike; Warsh should keep the game as it is.

Sellers are becoming increasingly at risk—they keep mistaking STRUCTURAL WEAKNESS for PRICES falling due to news.

Let’s see how it plays out!

Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No advice. Binance AI may be used without guarantee. See T&Cs.