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$BTC Long-awaited clear bill vote is officially scheduled for tomorrow
If passed → Bitcoin will surge
If vetoed → Bitcoin will surge

No matter what, the bull market will come!

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Today’s Bitcoin (BTC) price action is relatively strong. The price has moved above $79,000, with about a 2% gain over the past 24 hours. The intraday low was around $76,375, and a clear rebound has emerged.
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Will the Federal Reserve raise rates as expected this week? Wall Street is debating: will it end the U.S. stock bull market?

After an unexpectedly strong U.S. CPI report came out last Friday, traders generally expect the Federal Reserve to begin raising rates at this week’s policy meeting—marking the first rate hike in more than three years.

Historically, previous rounds of rate hikes have offered a reference point for today’s market. Based on past experience (though history of course can’t guarantee the future), U.S. stocks may first weaken, then rebound.

Among the six tightening cycles since 1994, during the first four months after the rate-hike cycle began, the S&P 500’s average return was negative.

This suggests that once the “rate-hike shoe” drops, U.S. stocks may look lackluster through the beginning of next year.

As of the close last Friday, the benchmark U.S. equity index, the S&P 500, is up nearly 12% year to date. Strong corporate earnings and a fairly resilient economy have provided solid support for bulls in the stock market.

If you extend the time horizon, the S&P 500’s performance tends to improve gradually: in the 12 months after the start of a rate-hiking cycle, the index’s average return is close to 7%, with a median return of about 11%. (Using median-based statistics helps remove distortions from extreme outliers—for example, the index surged more than 40% after hikes began in March 1997.)

If the Federal Reserve implements a rate hike this Wednesday, it will be the first hike since July 2023—when the Fed raised rates to a range of 5.25% to 5.50%.

Currently, the federal funds rate in the U.S. is at 3.50% to 3.75%. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, futures traders currently assign an 86% probability to a 25-basis-point hike this week.

One positive factor for the market is that mega-scale cloud service providers are still driving growth in excess returns through large-scale AI spending. The S&P 500 component stocks’ forecast for earnings growth in 2027 is expected to reach double digits. If the outlook for AI spending remains unchanged, it may be enough to offset any cooling in optimistic sentiment caused by the rate hikes.

Another bright spot for equities is that although inflation remains sticky, it appears to be slowing. The inflation rate has fallen from a May peak of 4.2%. This should allow the Federal Reserve to take a more gradual approach, and the data shows that the pace of rate hikes is crucial for stock performance—slower pacing gives investors more time to absorb policy changes!
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$38 billion flows into ETFs over three weeks, Strategy buys the dip at $80,000—what are institutions betting on?

Two sets of data put together are especially interesting:

On one side, retail investors are panicking:
Nonfarm payrolls beat expectations → interest rate hike odds at 60% → “Is the bull market gone?”

On the other side, institutions are buying:
BTC ETF net inflows of $3.8 billion over three weeks—its strongest consecutive inflow streak of the year;
After pausing for two months, Strategy re-enters the market—buying at an average price of $80,000 for 4,603 BTC.

It’s like two neighbors:
One worries whether it’ll rain tomorrow, while the other has already stockpiled food.

In fact, the institutions’ logic is pretty straightforward:
Short-term noise doesn’t change the long-term trend—whether rates are raised is a monthly variable, while BTC institutionalization is a year-scale variable. $80,000 is a build-the-position zone, not a top-chasing exit zone. Compared with the ATH of $126,000, we’re still about halfway up the mountain. ETF flows are “dumb money”—once it comes in, it usually doesn’t leave easily. This is long-term core positioning.

But let me remind you of one thing:
Institutional buying ≠ the bull run starts immediately. Institutional accumulation is a process—it may take weeks or even months to play out.

Retail investors are most likely to die during the “institutions are buying, so why isn’t it going up?” impatience phase.

It’s like planting crops—you can’t dig them up every day just to see whether they’ve sprouted.

I compiled an “Institutional Holdings Watchlist,” including daily ETF inflows, Strategy holdings, and changes in whale addresses.

Send two characters—“机构” (institutions)—in my chat room to get it. Updated weekly.

Do you think this round of institutional buying is really smart, or are they just catching the bag? Let’s discuss in the comments.

#BinanceSquare #bitcoin #BTCETF #institutional holdings

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Trump pushes the CLARITY Act to achieve a “historic ethical compromise”: the Republican Party adopts 95% of the Democrats’ core demands, and U.S. crypto regulation finally finds a breakthrough

On the eve of bipartisan consensus: a regulatory standoff lasting 14 months reaches a key turning point

The U.S. deadlock on digital-asset regulatory legislation saw a landmark breakthrough in the third quarter of 2026.

In a direct move to advance the more than year-long “Digital Asset Market Clarity Act” (Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act, or the CLARITY Act), President Trump led Republicans in making a major concession on core ethical regulatory provisions. According to multiple insiders from the Senate, the latest Republican compromise proposal has covered roughly 95% of the Democrats’ core regulatory demands, with only 5% remaining as technical details to be negotiated.

Industry insiders widely view this as the most milestone-worthy bipartisan compromise in the federal U.S. digital-asset regulatory legislative process. It also means that the unified regulatory framework for the world’s largest crypto market is accelerating from “paper concept” toward implementation. #BTC #crypto

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Wishing you good health, good luck, and plenty of green candles!
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