好运来Hawk

One evening, Lý Dương asked me:

“Mr. Bai, what does it take to be considered a good trader? Is it all about making a lot of money?”

I smiled: “Maybe not for sure.”

At the beginning, Lý Dương only had a few tens of thousands of dollars. He traded very carefully—if he made a profit, he felt happy; if he lost, he would look for the reasons. But when his account grew to a few hundred thousand dollars, everything gradually changed.

He traded more, with larger volumes. The profit of 5k—something that once made him happy—now felt too small. Losing 10k no longer led him to analyze; he only wanted to quickly make it back.

One day, he said: “Earlier, I traded to make money. Now I trade like I’m trying to prove that I’m right.”

I fell silent.

After that, Lý Dương started reducing the frequency and volume of his trades, pulling back some profits and spending more time on his life.

A few months later, he said: “I’m not making money as fast as before, but I sleep better.”

I thought, that’s the real maturity of a trader. Making money is a skill. Not letting money and emotions control you—that’s real class.

50K followers achieved🎉🎉🎉! Thanks for everyone’s support and kindness! #Hawk is for freedom! ✊✊🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧

🌤️Hike through mountains and wilds, settle within, and gaze far outward⛰️

Climbing is never accomplished overnight, and trading is also a long journey of cultivation📊.
There are steep slopes along the way, and the market can be volatile—so there’s no need to fear temporary detours🕊️.
Steady your breathing, hold fast to your own pace, and refuse to be dragged around by short-term fluctuations✨.
Only by enduring the tests of the journey can you earn the unique vastness of the mountaintop💎.

To those traveling the same path—move forward steadily, and you will find your own scenery🌿

#交易心理

#美联储加息是否已成定局

#1688家族family

Autumn frost dyes the leaves, no tender grace to harm; weaving subtle splendor, gracing nature’s final charm!
Autumn frost dyes the leaves, no tender grace to harm; weaving subtle splendor, gracing nature’s final charm!

$LTC I don’t care whether you raise rates or whatever—if the bulls are coming, then whatever bad news there is won’t matter. Just do it, brothers—more of it!

Early this morning, the Fed’s rate hike has landed: 25 basis points, 3.75%–4%, passed unanimously.

To be honest, the hike itself was already expected by the market, with a 93% probability—there wasn’t much suspense. But the truly surprising part was the dot plot—of the 18 officials, 16 believe there will be another rate hike this year. By the end of the year, the median rate hit 4.1%, and it stays at 4.1% in 2027. The message is very clear: rate hikes are not a one-off; high rates need to be maintained for a long time.

Earlier, the market was still fantasizing that after this round, they’d cut rates. Now that fantasy is shattered. When Waller (Wosh) stepped up, he went straight for the first fire—burning pretty intensely, leaving Trump with no face at all. Trump had previously said rates should be cut to below 1%, but the Fed directly raised rates, and also hinted that more hikes may follow.

Back to the crypto world: these past two days, the drop has been truly brutal. The Clear Act didn’t pass, and the Fed turned more hawkish again—double whammy. BTC fell from 79,000 to 75,000. ETH dropped even more, with 120,000 liquidations.

But I actually think this kind of concentrated release of bad news isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Everything that needed to drop has dropped; everything that needed to get liquidated has been liquidated. Once the market digests it, it should enter the next phase with a lighter load. Now BTC is holding around 75,000, which suggests there are buyers stepping in at this level.

Of course, I’m not saying a rally is coming immediately. Short-term pressure will definitely remain. The macro environment is poor, and regulation is still uncertain—so we may need to grind through the base for a while. But if you look further ahead, these are just interludes.

The rate-hike cycle will eventually end, and regulation will eventually become clear.

These things don’t change Bitcoin’s underlying value.

At 4 p.m., I’ll chat in the group about “After the rate hike lands, how do we go from here?”—I’ll share my outlook and my trading plan. If you’re interested, come join.

The Fed hikes rates,
US stocks fall,
Treasury yields are still at high levels.
And somehow BTC still didn’t give the bears a clean knockout 😂
$75,000 gets dumped, then it turns right around and pokes back up to $76,000.
The more times the market is obvious enough for everyone to understand, the more likely surprises are.
Drop “888” in the comments; sis, send a few red packets to calm the nerves.
$BTC

With everyday-unnoticed extra money, chase trends that will matter in the future.
Understanding mainstream long-term value is steadier than blindly following the small coins that surge and crash.
Risk control is the bottom line of a long journey; time is the best friend for profits.
Establish a solid foundation with mainstream spot trading, and explore interesting community consensus with a very small capital amount.$BNB

Riding the waves to迎光, embarking on new horizons, together we reach far, and open a brilliant new chapter.
Ride the waves, embrace light, and stride toward a brilliant future.

#Hawk K Line Notes: Guess who the board is? Community consensus takes time to develop. ¥15.9M market cap, liquidity ¥1.92M; amidst interwoven moving averages, it’s choppy and oscillating. Use spare money and time to trade for space—doesn’t affect daily life, doesn’t violate rules, and no stock-picking tips. 🕊️

Statement: This article is for personal watch-and-interaction reference only and does not constitute any investment advice; risks are borne by the individual.

Crude Oil Rises—Why Is Gold Under Pressure Instead?

Recently, the market has been influenced at the same time by geopolitical risks, energy prices, and expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

At present, Brent crude is around $107, while WTI is around $105. Oil prices have remained at elevated levels. What the market is most worried about is not crude oil itself, but its impact on inflation expectations.

The logic is simple:

Oil prices rise → inflation pressure increases → the Fed’s room to cut rates is constrained → U.S. Treasury yields rise → gold comes under pressure.

So right now, gold is being pulled by two forces:

On one hand, safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical conditions supports gold;

On the other hand, higher oil prices boost inflation and rate-expectation pressures that suppress gold.

That’s also why you can’t simply understand it as:

“Geopolitical risk rises = gold must rise.”

In reality, gold’s short-term price action still depends on the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields.

Currently, the 10-year Treasury yield is already around 5%. If yields continue to move higher, gold’s short-term downside pressure could increase further.

Next, I will focus on three variables:

First, crude oil.

If oil prices keep rising quickly, inflation expectations may heat up further.

Second, Treasury yields.

If the 10-year yield keeps moving higher, gold may continue to be weighed down.

Third, the Federal Reserve.

Today’s FOMC rate decision is only the first step; more important is the policy guidance/signals after the meeting.

If the Fed releases more hawkish signals:

A stronger dollar and firmer yields → gold faces pressure.

If the policy statement is not as hawkish as the market expected:

Yields fall back → gold receives support.

So my view on gold now won’t be based solely on geopolitical news.

Crude oil determines inflation expectations, interest rates determine the cost of capital, and risk-off/safe-haven sentiment determines how much support is underneath gold.

Only when all three factors move at the same time is the key to understanding this round of the gold market.
$XAU

$CL

$BZ

🚨 BTC ETF saw an inflow of $160 million, yet the next day it saw an outflow of $450 million.

This set of data is more worth watching than just “ETF money is back.”

On September 14, U.S. spot BTC ETFs had a net inflow of about $160 million.

But on September 15, it flipped directly the other way:

Net outflow of about $450 million.

This shows institutional money hasn’t formed a consistent direction right now.

Macro interest rates, regulatory expectations, and the BTC price are all changing rapidly, and Wall Street is constantly adjusting its positions.

So at this stage, what I care about isn’t:

How much ETF money comes in on a given day.

Instead, it’s:

Whether there can be a return of continuous net inflows next.

That $160 million in one day is a signal.

Only a few days of funds returning could truly change the trend.

And if BTC can still hold key levels despite the repeated inflows and outflows of ETF funds—

that’s the more important thing to watch.

👇 What do you think the next round of ETF flows will be:

Return again 🟢 / Continue retreating 🔴？

#BTC #ETH #BNB

Combat power is still recovering. Number 12 clears number 11 alone—I'll be back to stream once I'm recovered, brothers. (ps: The estimated stream times are still the old schedule: 7 AM, 3 PM for event contracts, and 10 PM for perpetual contracts.)

#美联储加息是否已成定局 9月本次加息已经落地（定局）：美联储9月议息会议加息25bp，联邦基金利率来到3.75%-4.00%，2023年7月之后首次重启加息。
This hike has already taken effect. Now the market is looking at another rate hike by the end of the year—it’s all about expectations. Will $BTC Bitcoin go up or go down?

💥Keep moving without stopping, strive without end. May you weather a thousand sails and finally reach what you desire.

#美联储加息是否已成定局 #比特币ETF净流出4.5亿美元

#Hawk
No matter if you’re a bull or a bear,
if you’re an eagle, I’m a cat—my little kitty.

One evening, Lý Dương asked me:

“Mr. Bai, what does it take to be considered a good trader? Is it all about making a lot of money?”

I smiled: “Maybe not for sure.”

At the beginning, Lý Dương only had a few tens of thousands of dollars. He traded very carefully—if he made a profit, he felt happy; if he lost, he would look for the reasons. But when his account grew to a few hundred thousand dollars, everything gradually changed.

He traded more, with larger volumes. The profit of 5k—something that once made him happy—now felt too small. Losing 10k no longer led him to analyze; he only wanted to quickly make it back.

One day, he said: “Earlier, I traded to make money. Now I trade like I’m trying to prove that I’m right.”

I fell silent.

After that, Lý Dương started reducing the frequency and volume of his trades, pulling back some profits and spending more time on his life.

A few months later, he said: “I’m not making money as fast as before, but I sleep better.”

I thought, that’s the real maturity of a trader. Making money is a skill. Not letting money and emotions control you—that’s real class.