The CPI data is coming out soon—what does the market expect for this CPI?
Market expectations
CPI MoM: +0.2%
CPI YoY: 3.4%
Core CPI MoM: +0.2%
Core CPI YoY: about 2.4%
Last month (July) the actual figures were CPI YoY 3.4% and core CPI YoY 2.5%.
What the market is most focused on this time?
Energy prices. Oil prices have recently risen sharply, and August PPI has already reached MoM +0.4% and YoY +5.4%. Energy inflation is clearly rising, and the market is worried that inflation could flare up again.
Impact on the market
Below expectations → positive for $BTC and US stocks; expectations for rate cuts / no rate hikes gain traction
In line with expectations → the market will mainly watch core CPI; price action may be choppy
Above expectations, especially core CPI ≥0.3% → a clear negative risk for risk assets; rate-hike expectations may continue to rise
In one sentence: this time it’s not about whether CPI shows inflation—it’s about whether inflation is getting out of control again due to oil prices. Core CPI is what truly determines the next steps for the Fed.
Market expectations
CPI MoM: +0.2%
CPI YoY: 3.4%
Core CPI MoM: +0.2%
Core CPI YoY: about 2.4%
Last month (July) the actual figures were CPI YoY 3.4% and core CPI YoY 2.5%.
What the market is most focused on this time?
Energy prices. Oil prices have recently risen sharply, and August PPI has already reached MoM +0.4% and YoY +5.4%. Energy inflation is clearly rising, and the market is worried that inflation could flare up again.
Impact on the market
Below expectations → positive for $BTC and US stocks; expectations for rate cuts / no rate hikes gain traction
In line with expectations → the market will mainly watch core CPI; price action may be choppy
Above expectations, especially core CPI ≥0.3% → a clear negative risk for risk assets; rate-hike expectations may continue to rise
In one sentence: this time it’s not about whether CPI shows inflation—it’s about whether inflation is getting out of control again due to oil prices. Core CPI is what truly determines the next steps for the Fed.