If Payroll exceeds expectations, the market will have to recalculate some things even before the release of the CPI.
A strong job market means the U.S. economy is still not showing clear signs of slowing down. And if the CPI comes in above expectations, the situation for the Fed gets even more complicated: cutting rates is no longer an option, and another rate hike seriously comes back onto the radar.
In my view, the scenario is simple:
Strong Payroll + High CPI = extremely bearish for risk assets in the short term.
In this scenario, the dollar tends to gain strength, yields on U.S. Treasuries may rise, and gold may face initial pressure. But that’s exactly where I look for opportunities.
Gold can fall on expectations of higher rates, but I still believe that moments of pressure can represent good areas for maintaining positions or making gradual buys, especially given the level of U.S. indebtedness and the structural need for liquidity in the long run.
Now, if the CPI comes in under control—even with strong Payroll—the Fed may prefer to keep rates and wait for more data before making any decision.
My takeaway today is: caution ahead of the CPI.
Payroll may show strength, but it’s inflation that can determine the Fed’s next move.
📉 Hot CPI: pressure on markets and a more hawkish scenario.
📈 Controlled CPI: relief and the possibility of a reaction in risk assets.
And you? Are you buying, holding, or reducing your position in gold before these data?
#CPIWatch
A strong job market means the U.S. economy is still not showing clear signs of slowing down. And if the CPI comes in above expectations, the situation for the Fed gets even more complicated: cutting rates is no longer an option, and another rate hike seriously comes back onto the radar.
In my view, the scenario is simple:
Strong Payroll + High CPI = extremely bearish for risk assets in the short term.
In this scenario, the dollar tends to gain strength, yields on U.S. Treasuries may rise, and gold may face initial pressure. But that’s exactly where I look for opportunities.
Gold can fall on expectations of higher rates, but I still believe that moments of pressure can represent good areas for maintaining positions or making gradual buys, especially given the level of U.S. indebtedness and the structural need for liquidity in the long run.
Now, if the CPI comes in under control—even with strong Payroll—the Fed may prefer to keep rates and wait for more data before making any decision.
My takeaway today is: caution ahead of the CPI.
Payroll may show strength, but it’s inflation that can determine the Fed’s next move.
📉 Hot CPI: pressure on markets and a more hawkish scenario.
📈 Controlled CPI: relief and the possibility of a reaction in risk assets.
And you? Are you buying, holding, or reducing your position in gold before these data?
#CPIWatch
