🔄 FOLLOW-UP #001 — $BTC
In #001, we highlight an improvement in Bitcoin’s structure, but also a key condition: BTC had to recover and hold the $80,000.
So far, that hasn’t happened.
In addition, the macro context has become more demanding: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is approaching 5% (higher bond yields can reduce the appeal of higher-risk assets like Bitcoin) and today a key U.S. inflation figure is released.
That’s why I’m updating the thesis:
📉 Bullish conviction: 58/100
Previous: 72/100
The thesis hasn’t been invalidated yet, but it has lost momentum.
What do I need to see to increase conviction again?
• $BTC reclaiming and holding $80,000.
• Lower pressure from interest rates.
• A favorable market reaction after the inflation data.
If the opposite occurs, we’ll need to reassess the scenario again.
A thesis isn’t defended out of pride. It’s updated when the data changes.
We’ll keep watching.
#Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoMarket #MarketUpdate
In #001, we highlight an improvement in Bitcoin’s structure, but also a key condition: BTC had to recover and hold the $80,000.
So far, that hasn’t happened.
In addition, the macro context has become more demanding: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is approaching 5% (higher bond yields can reduce the appeal of higher-risk assets like Bitcoin) and today a key U.S. inflation figure is released.
That’s why I’m updating the thesis:
📉 Bullish conviction: 58/100
Previous: 72/100
The thesis hasn’t been invalidated yet, but it has lost momentum.
What do I need to see to increase conviction again?
• $BTC reclaiming and holding $80,000.
• Lower pressure from interest rates.
• A favorable market reaction after the inflation data.
If the opposite occurs, we’ll need to reassess the scenario again.
A thesis isn’t defended out of pride. It’s updated when the data changes.
We’ll keep watching.
#Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoMarket #MarketUpdate