乘风Sunshine

Listen to music, hurry up!

I made money—earned 48 US dollars. Now playing event contracts is getting harder and harder. Getting some real “meat” is really not easy. My daily living expenses are in hand.
（ps: I’m recovering; when I’m back, I’ll stream steadily again. The preliminary plan is still the same old schedule: event contract at 7:00 AM, and perpetual contract at 10:00 PM）

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Yesterday’s Crypto Market News Roundup / Riding the Sunshine

1. Bitcoin rebounds face a key test: Bitcoin has recently returned to around $77,000, with market focus shifting to this week’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Reuters says that expectations of rate cuts and policy uncertainty will be key to whether this rebound can continue.
2. The U.S. CLARITY Act faces a critical vote: U.S. Senate Republicans have released a revised bill text for the crypto market structure act, adding more ethical and regulatory constraints. The Senate will hold a key procedural vote on September 15, and whether it can secure 60 votes remains uncertain.
3. S&P Global bets on crypto data infrastructure: Crypto data company Kaiko completed a $110 million funding round led by S&P Global, showing that traditional financial institutions continue to increase their investments in the crypto data and infrastructure segment.
4. Singapore Exchange approved to offer BTC and ETH perpetual contracts to U.S. institutions: SGX has received U.S. CFTC approval to, through relevant arrangements, provide Bitcoin and Ethereum perpetual contracts to institutional investors in the United States, as traditional exchanges further move into the crypto derivatives market.
5. Institutions continue to add to BTC holdings; Strategy repurchases its own shares: Strategy announced a buyback of about $139 million of STRC preferred stock, while also maintaining a position equivalent to roughly 4% of Bitcoin’s total supply. Another institution, Strive, bought about $36.6 million worth of BTC again yesterday, bringing its holdings above 25,000 coins.

《The Truth Behind 7 Counterintuitive Things in Trading》

Trading is one of the few professions in the world where cognition, human nature, and discipline are priced directly.

The market doesn’t care how hard you try.

If you pull all-nighters to review charts, you won’t make an extra cent.

If you study hundreds of indicators, it still won’t make the market more sympathetic to you.

The only language the market truly recognizes is your account balance.

So, here are some truly counterintuitive truths in trading:

1. The more you want to make money, the more likely you are to lose money.

Because the desire to profit will push you to trade;
trading impulse will push you to search for opportunities;
and the real opportunities—precisely—won’t show up every day.

2. The most important ability in trading isn’t judgment; it’s the willingness to give up.

Give up opportunities you don’t have conviction in,
let go of logic that has already become invalid,
and abandon the fantasy that says, “Just wait— it will come back.”

3. Experts aren’t more daring gamblers than ordinary people; they’re more daring at not gambling.

When others are fully loaded with positions, they can go to cash.
When others succumb to FOMO, they can wait.
When others go crazy, they start calculating risk instead.

4. A stop loss isn’t surrender—it’s refusing to let a mistake turn into a catastrophe.

What’s truly dangerous has never been the loss itself.

It’s when you lose 10% and start imagining you’ll break even;
when you lose 30% and begin praying for a rebound;
when you lose 50% and end up surviving on nothing but faith.

5. Win rate isn’t the thing you should chase the most.

Because a single fatal big loss can wipe out dozens of small wins.

What trading really competes on is:

How much you make when you’re right, and how much you lose when you’re wrong.

6. The most dangerous trade isn’t the one that loses money—it’s the one that lets you earn “money beyond your capability.”

Because losses make people more cautious.

Extreme profits, on the other hand, are what most easily create illusions.

After a few times of “all-in” making money, you think you’ve figured it out.

The market usually teaches you with the very next bout of volatility:

You didn’t “figure it out”—you were just not harvested yet.

7. True freedom isn’t buying whenever you want, and selling whenever you want.

It’s this:

Even though you want to trade, you can choose not to.

Only those who can control themselves truly possess trading freedom.

In the end, you’ll realize:

You think you’re studying the market.

Actually, the market is studying you.

Study your greed,
study your fear,
study your wishful thinking,
and study the moment you lose control.

Learninging@Jiayi助手 @Jiayi Li

Today’s Market Snapshot / Riding the Sunshine

1️⃣ US stock index futures weaken significantly, with tech bearing the brunt
US stock index futures are fairly weak: Nasdaq 100 futures are down about 1.2%, S&P 500 futures about -0.5%, while Dow futures are relatively less down. The market is mainly concerned about rising oil prices, higher interest rates, and
AI (+0.01%)
valuation pressure on the sector.

2️⃣ Oil has again become the biggest variable for global markets
WTI is currently around $102.8 per barrel, while Brent is around $107.7. The rise in oil prices has reignited inflation concerns. The market worries about a “high oil price + high interest rates” scenario occurring at the same time, which would be unfavorable for both US stocks and crypto assets.

3️⃣ US Treasury yields near 5% weigh on risk assets
The US 10-year Treasury yield is around 4.97%, approaching the 5% threshold. Rising yields mean higher funding costs, while also boosting the risk-free return on USD assets, putting pressure on BTC, gold, and high-valuation tech stocks.

4️⃣ Gold and silver face short-term pressure
Gold is currently about $4,378 per ounce, and silver has also fallen noticeably recently. The key reason is: oil prices rising → inflation concerns → pressure on Fed rate-cut expectations → higher Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar.

5️⃣ BTC is around $769,000; for now it hasn’t clearly broken away from macro logic
Over the past few days, BTC has pulled back from around $800,000 and is currently around $769,000. The biggest external factor right now isn’t a single crypto-sector headline, but rather US Treasury yields, oil prices, and risk appetite in US equities

Last Week’s News Highlights｜9/7–9/13
1. BTC (-0.01%) weakens in choppy trading: Driven by CPI, oil prices, and expectations of a Fed rate cut, BTC briefly fell below $77,000.
2. Fed meeting approaching: The September 16 FOMC is the biggest macro variable this week.
3. The CLARITY Act enters a critical stage: The U.S. crypto regulatory bill is expected to face a key vote on September 15.
4. ETH shows relative strength: It has clearly outperformed BTC recently, and the market continues to watch the $3,000 target.
5. Stablecoins keep expanding: USDT and others are extending from trading scenarios into payments, credit, RWA, and financial infrastructure

Yesterday’s News Brief | Riding the Sunshine

1. BTC remains weak in consolidation, with DOGE underperforming among major coins. Bitcoin briefly held around $78,000, down about 1% over 24 hours. DOGE fell more than 5%, BNB dropped about 4%, and XRP slid about 3%. The market was also pressured by oil prices breaking above $100 and rising U.S. Treasury yields.
2. Nasdaq invests $100 million in Kraken’s parent company, Payward. Nasdaq Ventures announced a strategic investment and will further work with Kraken to advance tokenized stocks and an around-the-clock trading infrastructure, as traditional finance accelerates toward on-chain assets.
3. Coinbase and Moov team up to push stablecoins into U.S. community banks. Through Coinbase Payments API and custody wallets, both parties will provide stablecoin payments, settlement, and real-time fund services for more than 1,000 community banks and credit unions.
4. Competition over regulation of U.S. prediction markets intensifies. Citadel Securities argues that the SEC—not the CFTC—should regulate event contracts related to public companies, saying such products may qualify as securities or security-based swaps. The SEC/CFTC jurisdiction dispute further heats up.
5. Stablecoin applications continue to penetrate real-world payments. MoneyGram launched its first Visa card in Colombia that supports stablecoins, initially supporting USDC, with plans to add its own stablecoin, MGUSD, in the future. On the same day, Uniswap introduced the StablePair Hook, using dynamic fees to improve stablecoin LP value-capture capabilities.

Yesterday’s News Snapshot / Riding the Sunshine

1️⃣ BTC holds near $79,000 as the market waits for the U.S. CPI
BTC briefly slipped to around $77,700 yesterday, then rebounded to about $79,000. For now, the market’s focus remains on this week’s U.S. inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on September 16.

2️⃣ The U.S. “CLARITY Act” enters a critical stage—procedural votes may come on September 15
The U.S. crypto industry and banking sector are launching a new round of lobbying around the “CLARITY Act.” If passed, the bill would further clarify the regulatory boundaries for digital assets and is seen as an important legislative milestone for the U.S. crypto industry.

3️⃣ Tether launches a $400 million private credit fund, exploring “stablecoins + real-world finance”
Tether and Fasanara Capital have launched a $400 million StableFund. They plan to use the USDT settlement system to participate in private credit for small and medium-sized enterprises, and aim to attract additional third-party capital. Stablecoin applications are expanding from trading settlement into real-world financial business.

4️⃣ ETH shows a “flag-style consolidation” in the short term; the market watches the $3,000 area
ETH has risen about 37% over the past 10 days, with a peak around $2,564. It has since entered a sideways consolidation. Technical analysis suggests that if it breaks out of the current range, the next key target may be near $3,000–$3,060.

5️⃣ Macroeconomic conditions weaken: oil breaks above $100; Treasury yields rise to near multi-year highs
Due to the Middle East situation, Brent crude has regained a level above $100 per barrel. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury has climbed to about 4.84%. High oil prices may push inflation higher again, putting pressure on expectations for Fed rate cuts and on risk assets, including BTC.

In mid-September, the real big test for the crypto world is coming.

On September 15–16, three major developments collide within 48 hours:

1️⃣ The CLARITY Act
The Senate will face a crucial procedural vote. With 53 Republican seats, to reach the 60-vote threshold at least 7 Democratic lawmakers would be needed. The core of the fight isn’t just over a few licenses—it’s about who within the SEC/CFTC will have authority, how RWA will be handled, and whether on-chain perpetual contracts can enter the U.S.

2️⃣ A $70 billion cake
The stablecoin market is already over $300 billion in size, and some market forecasts suggest it could reach $2 trillion by 2028. Based on a reserve yield of 3.5%–3.75%, that translates to a theoretical annual interest pool of roughly $70–75 billion.

Banks aren’t afraid of Crypto itself. They’re afraid that stablecoins are starting to take away bank deposits. Exchanges, stablecoin issuers, and banks are competing for the same pot of U.S. dollar liquidity.

3️⃣ The Fed + Circle Arc
On September 16, the FOMC will announce its interest rate decision. The market has already gone through a round of rapid gains: in August, BTC rose by about 25%, and spot ETF net inflows are around $3.5 billion. If regulatory expectations are dashed while liquidity tightens, high-leverage assets may be hit first.

On the same day, Circle’s Arc plans to go live on the mainnet. In Q2, USDC’s circulating supply was about $73.3 billion, and Circle reserve revenue accounted for about 95% of total revenue. What Arc truly wants isn’t “another blockchain”—it’s the infrastructure entry point for the future of stablecoins, RWA, payments, and institutional settlement.

So the drama in September, on the surface, is about whether BTC rises or falls.

At its core, it’s this:

In the U.S. future—digital dollars, on-chain trading, and RWA—who will regulate them, who will control liquidity, and who will capture the profits.

The $70 billion is just the visible cake.

The real big cake is the redistribution that will happen across the entire financial system once everything is moved on-chain.