#cpi数据来袭能否触发9月加息
👉 CPI 今晚出炉，群里同步解读
US CPI to be released tonight in August, with market bets on a rate hike next week already climbing to 70%📊
This data is the last key inflation reading before the September meeting of the Federal Reserve. Bitcoin has been stuck between 77,000 and 78,000—nobody dares to move first.
First, let’s look at a few numbers from this release. The overall CPI is expected to rise 0.4% month-on-month, and 3.4% year-on-year. Core CPI is the real key—it excludes energy and food. August PPI already rose 0.4% first, passing cost pressures forward by another layer. The energy component, still influenced by oil prices, is continuing to move higher, and the stickiness in the services sector has not eased.
What’s truly worth watching is the pricing in the futures/interest-rate swap market. A week ago, the probability of a rate hike was a little over 40%; now it’s about 70%. This shift suggests traders are not just betting on the data—rather, the Fed’s stance has already turned. Adjustments in the swap market typically happen faster than changes in the dot plot, so prices are set in advance.
For crypto, rate expectations are basically the liquidity switch. When rate-hike expectations rise, the US dollar strengthens, and risk assets have some capital pulled out first. Bitcoin ETFs have seen outflows for three straight days, totaling $449 million, with ARKB accounting for about half.
Do you think this CPI will send Bitcoin up to 80,000, or will it first slam it back to 75,000—will easing inflation save the day, or will the core data surprise to the upside again? Let’s discuss in the comments.
👉 CPI 今晚出炉，群里同步解读
US CPI to be released tonight in August, with market bets on a rate hike next week already climbing to 70%📊
This data is the last key inflation reading before the September meeting of the Federal Reserve. Bitcoin has been stuck between 77,000 and 78,000—nobody dares to move first.
First, let’s look at a few numbers from this release. The overall CPI is expected to rise 0.4% month-on-month, and 3.4% year-on-year. Core CPI is the real key—it excludes energy and food. August PPI already rose 0.4% first, passing cost pressures forward by another layer. The energy component, still influenced by oil prices, is continuing to move higher, and the stickiness in the services sector has not eased.
What’s truly worth watching is the pricing in the futures/interest-rate swap market. A week ago, the probability of a rate hike was a little over 40%; now it’s about 70%. This shift suggests traders are not just betting on the data—rather, the Fed’s stance has already turned. Adjustments in the swap market typically happen faster than changes in the dot plot, so prices are set in advance.
For crypto, rate expectations are basically the liquidity switch. When rate-hike expectations rise, the US dollar strengthens, and risk assets have some capital pulled out first. Bitcoin ETFs have seen outflows for three straight days, totaling $449 million, with ARKB accounting for about half.
Do you think this CPI will send Bitcoin up to 80,000, or will it first slam it back to 75,000—will easing inflation save the day, or will the core data surprise to the upside again? Let’s discuss in the comments.
