According to the latest survey results released by Markets Pulse, as Treasury selling intensifies, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose above 4.96% on Thursday, hitting its highest level in more than three years. Among the 122 market professionals surveyed, about 30% believe that once the 10-year Treasury yield reaches the 5% to 5.25% range, U.S. stocks may pull back 10% from their highs and officially enter a technical correction; another 22% of institutions think this critical level lies between 5.25% and 5.5%. RSM’s chief economist Joseph Brusuelas explicitly warned that the market is edging toward a long-overdue risk correction.
Behind this surge in yields is the recent deterioration in Middle East geopolitical conditions, which has pushed international oil prices through the $100-per-barrel mark, directly triggering deep fears of a second round of inflation. For the Federal Reserve, rising inflation expectations have effectively shut the door on rate cuts in the near term and may even force it to keep highly restrictive high interest rates in place for a longer period. Earlier optimistic pricing in the market around a soft landing and a shift in liquidity now looks fragile in the face of harsh macroeconomic reality.
From the perspective of traditional financial markets, the approach of the risk-free rate toward 5% is materially reshaping asset-pricing logic. When investors can earn more than 5% annualized returns simply by holding risk-free government bonds, the equity risk premium (ERP) for risk assets such as stocks has been compressed to dangerously low levels. The trend of institutional funds flowing back from overvalued equity assets to fixed-income markets is unlikely to reverse, and continued tightening of U.S. dollar liquidity will further raise discount rates across the market.
For the crypto market, this is undoubtedly a liquidity headwind that must be closely watched. Against a backdrop of persistently high macro funding costs, appetite for incremental capital to enter risk assets has cooled sharply, and core assets such as $BTC are difficult to escape the valuation pressure brought on by liquidity withdrawal. If U.S. stocks trigger a 10%-level pullback due to the interest-rate shock, crypto assets are likely to face a second wave of selloff driven by deleveraging and liquidity squeezes. Investors should tightly control leverage now and guard against the risks of liquidity transmission. #美债收益率 #通胀 #Federal Reserve
Behind this surge in yields is the recent deterioration in Middle East geopolitical conditions, which has pushed international oil prices through the $100-per-barrel mark, directly triggering deep fears of a second round of inflation. For the Federal Reserve, rising inflation expectations have effectively shut the door on rate cuts in the near term and may even force it to keep highly restrictive high interest rates in place for a longer period. Earlier optimistic pricing in the market around a soft landing and a shift in liquidity now looks fragile in the face of harsh macroeconomic reality.
From the perspective of traditional financial markets, the approach of the risk-free rate toward 5% is materially reshaping asset-pricing logic. When investors can earn more than 5% annualized returns simply by holding risk-free government bonds, the equity risk premium (ERP) for risk assets such as stocks has been compressed to dangerously low levels. The trend of institutional funds flowing back from overvalued equity assets to fixed-income markets is unlikely to reverse, and continued tightening of U.S. dollar liquidity will further raise discount rates across the market.
For the crypto market, this is undoubtedly a liquidity headwind that must be closely watched. Against a backdrop of persistently high macro funding costs, appetite for incremental capital to enter risk assets has cooled sharply, and core assets such as $BTC are difficult to escape the valuation pressure brought on by liquidity withdrawal. If U.S. stocks trigger a 10%-level pullback due to the interest-rate shock, crypto assets are likely to face a second wave of selloff driven by deleveraging and liquidity squeezes. Investors should tightly control leverage now and guard against the risks of liquidity transmission. #美债收益率 #通胀 #Federal Reserve