$SNDK The current price is 1707. Why can’t this pullback be held? Let’s break it down from three levels.
First level: look at the nature of the funds. Last Friday, the underlying stock because it was included in the S&P 100, surged by 11.9 points, and the futures contract pushed to 1814. The main driver of this rally was passive capital—not discretionary buying that reprices a new fundamental outlook. It was essentially a rehearsal before the index inclusion. Passive capital typically buys at the scheduled time, then stops moving; it doesn’t keep pushing the price higher. So once the rehearsal ends, the premium naturally has to be given back. 1666 has already “returned” part of that premium; 1707 just hasn’t returned it all yet.
Second level: look at the volume/volume structure. The drop to the 1666 red candle was the largest volume of the past few days, indicating large-scale position switching happened at that level, with sell pressure being active. Today’s rebound to the 1707 green candle has volume that’s less than half of yesterday’s candle. In tokenized perpetuals—high-leverage products—if the rebound doesn’t have sufficient volume, it’s usually a technical repair caused by short positions closing and exiting, not longs actively stepping in. When shorts exit and when longs enter, the price both rise on the chart, but the underlying nature is completely different, and so is the likelihood of continuation afterward.
Third level: look at the external environment. Bitcoin is also dropping in parallel, from 79737 down to 76400. Storage perps don’t have independent “money flow” of their own. After the close of Korean and U.S. markets, contract liquidity tends to be worse, making the contracts more likely to follow Bitcoin’s rhythm. On the macro front, PPI is already relatively hot, while CPI is still ahead. In this environment, rebounds in high-beta products are more likely to be interrupted by macro data.
The fundamentals are fine—long-term holdings, buybacks, and the scheduled inclusion on September 21 are all still there, so the medium-term thesis hasn’t been broken. But the short-term trade isn’t about SanDisk’s fundamentals; it’s about leverage and macro conditions. So the core of judging why this pullback can’t be held isn’t where the price has fallen—it’s about who is buying and whether they can get through 1760 after buying. If it can’t break 1760, then it’s still continuing to offload. Only a break below 1666 would confirm the next leg.
Do you think this pullback is shorts exiting or longs entering? Share your reasoning based on your judgment. We’ll use the subsequent volume and price action to verify.
The above is only my personal thinking and does not constitute investment advice.#CPI数据来袭能否触发9月加息
First level: look at the nature of the funds. Last Friday, the underlying stock because it was included in the S&P 100, surged by 11.9 points, and the futures contract pushed to 1814. The main driver of this rally was passive capital—not discretionary buying that reprices a new fundamental outlook. It was essentially a rehearsal before the index inclusion. Passive capital typically buys at the scheduled time, then stops moving; it doesn’t keep pushing the price higher. So once the rehearsal ends, the premium naturally has to be given back. 1666 has already “returned” part of that premium; 1707 just hasn’t returned it all yet.
Second level: look at the volume/volume structure. The drop to the 1666 red candle was the largest volume of the past few days, indicating large-scale position switching happened at that level, with sell pressure being active. Today’s rebound to the 1707 green candle has volume that’s less than half of yesterday’s candle. In tokenized perpetuals—high-leverage products—if the rebound doesn’t have sufficient volume, it’s usually a technical repair caused by short positions closing and exiting, not longs actively stepping in. When shorts exit and when longs enter, the price both rise on the chart, but the underlying nature is completely different, and so is the likelihood of continuation afterward.
Third level: look at the external environment. Bitcoin is also dropping in parallel, from 79737 down to 76400. Storage perps don’t have independent “money flow” of their own. After the close of Korean and U.S. markets, contract liquidity tends to be worse, making the contracts more likely to follow Bitcoin’s rhythm. On the macro front, PPI is already relatively hot, while CPI is still ahead. In this environment, rebounds in high-beta products are more likely to be interrupted by macro data.
The fundamentals are fine—long-term holdings, buybacks, and the scheduled inclusion on September 21 are all still there, so the medium-term thesis hasn’t been broken. But the short-term trade isn’t about SanDisk’s fundamentals; it’s about leverage and macro conditions. So the core of judging why this pullback can’t be held isn’t where the price has fallen—it’s about who is buying and whether they can get through 1760 after buying. If it can’t break 1760, then it’s still continuing to offload. Only a break below 1666 would confirm the next leg.
Do you think this pullback is shorts exiting or longs entering? Share your reasoning based on your judgment. We’ll use the subsequent volume and price action to verify.
The above is only my personal thinking and does not constitute investment advice.#CPI数据来袭能否触发9月加息
