$BTC current price 77200. On September 9 it reached 79737.3 but couldn’t get through 80,000, and then the recent high shifted lower.
Last night, a high-volume long bearish candle dumped at 76402.9, with volume greater than the previous rebound. Today, volume contracted and it pulled back to 77200; this is a typical oversold dead-cat bounce, not a sign that the main players have turned bullish.
In the ETF weekly chart, a few weeks ago there was still inflow, but buyers still haven’t pushed back above 80,000. Last night’s PPI rose 0.4% month-on-month and 5.4% year-on-year; energy lifted wholesale prices. Tonight is the U.S. August CPI and the FOMC on the 15th–16th. In this kind of window, using leverage around 77,000 is essentially providing liquidity to the data.
Resistance is 78000–78500; only after that would the range be 79000–79737. With the current price at 77200, it’s bouncing off support. Support is 76402.9, today’s low. If that breaks, watch 76150/75000.
Bearish view: On the rebound into 77800–78500, reduce longs or try a short, with a stop-loss if it closes back above 79737. Bullish view: At least wait for 76400 to hold and for CPI not to run hot, then consider entering in batches. Chasing longs at 77200 now is catching a falling knife. If 76400 breaks, adding to shorts becomes valid; the first target to watch is 75000.
80,000 has turned from support into resistance; 76400 is the last line of defense for bulls. Short the rebound around 77200—don’t try to bottom-fish.
The above is only my personal thoughts and does not constitute investment advice.#CPI数据来袭能否触发9月加息
Last night, a high-volume long bearish candle dumped at 76402.9, with volume greater than the previous rebound. Today, volume contracted and it pulled back to 77200; this is a typical oversold dead-cat bounce, not a sign that the main players have turned bullish.
In the ETF weekly chart, a few weeks ago there was still inflow, but buyers still haven’t pushed back above 80,000. Last night’s PPI rose 0.4% month-on-month and 5.4% year-on-year; energy lifted wholesale prices. Tonight is the U.S. August CPI and the FOMC on the 15th–16th. In this kind of window, using leverage around 77,000 is essentially providing liquidity to the data.
Resistance is 78000–78500; only after that would the range be 79000–79737. With the current price at 77200, it’s bouncing off support. Support is 76402.9, today’s low. If that breaks, watch 76150/75000.
Bearish view: On the rebound into 77800–78500, reduce longs or try a short, with a stop-loss if it closes back above 79737. Bullish view: At least wait for 76400 to hold and for CPI not to run hot, then consider entering in batches. Chasing longs at 77200 now is catching a falling knife. If 76400 breaks, adding to shorts becomes valid; the first target to watch is 75000.
80,000 has turned from support into resistance; 76400 is the last line of defense for bulls. Short the rebound around 77200—don’t try to bottom-fish.
The above is only my personal thoughts and does not constitute investment advice.#CPI数据来袭能否触发9月加息
