Solana (SOL) is trading just below $100 after a monthly gain of nearly 33%, while analysts are split between the outlook for a major upside breakout and that of a brutal correction.
Key points:
SOL gained nearly 33% over a month but remains stuck below the psychological $100 threshold.
Bullish analysts cite the return of momentum, whale buying, and demand linked to spot ETFs, with some targeting $500 and even $1,000.
Bearish traders point to a slowdown in momentum and mention the risk of a pullback toward $80.
Solana tested at $100
SOL is up about 33% over the past month, following the broad crypto market rebound that began on August 19. The token remains slightly below $100, which is now considered the key threshold to break.
Buybacks by large investors ("whales") strengthen the bullish scenario. The analytics platform Lookonchain, for instance, says that investors identified under the name HURDw have accumulated nearly $30 million worth of SOL over three weeks. On X, meanwhile, the user Ted reported that a whale bought $9 million worth of Solana, seeing it as a sign of "smart money" shifting its focus back to altcoins.
Recent developments in spot SOL ETFs are also broadly positive, a move interpreted as reflecting increased demand from institutional investors.
Issuers such as Bitwise, Fidelity, Grayscale, VanEck, and Franklin Templeton are acquiring Solana tokens to back their spot products, adding yet another potential source of demand.
SOL’s relative strength index (RSI) has recently fallen back below 30, putting the token in oversold territory and paving the way for a technical rebound. The indicator ranges from 0 to 100; above 70, it is generally interpreted as a bearish signal.
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Ash Crypto’s outlook
For Ash Crypto, Solana is « one of the most bullish charts on the crypto market right now », citing its first green monthly candle in ten months and an improvement in momentum indicators. He also points to a monthly MACD nearing a bullish crossover and an RSI that is starting to break out of a two-year bearish trend.
Another trader, The Black Bull, describes SOL as « a $500 token trading at $100 », while Gerla believes the token has finished its manipulation phase. According to him, $500 is the next major target, before a possible move toward $1,000.
The bearish scenario remains clearly in place. BATMAN believes SOL is showing signs of weakness and notes a bearish divergence on the stochastic oscillator, while Crypto with Haris ₿ anticipates a drop toward $80. Haris says he is absorbing more than $180,000 in unrealized losses on his positions, which he is keeping open in anticipation of a pullback in Bitcoin (BTC) to $62,000.
Solana’s current setup follows a monthly rebound of nearly 33%, triggered by the market’s recovery on August 19 and bringing the token back in line with $100. Returning to a three-figure level now splits opinion between, on one side, those betting on a new leg up and, on the other, those calling for a deeper correction.
Watch out: the sell-side risk on Bitcoin is approaching a historic low, but ETF buyers still face an unrealized loss