#CPI数据来袭能否触发9月加息
Tonight’s CPI will probably keep the crypto market up again.
When the PPI came out yesterday, the market immediately started to get nervous. Now everyone’s most worried thing is this:
Will the Fed raise rates again in September or not?
The market has already priced in quite a high probability of further rate hikes, so if tonight’s CPI is just slightly above expectations, it will likely shock the market.
On the other hand, if CPI comes in below expectations, then things will feel much better.
With inflation cooling and rate-hike expectations falling, the U.S. dollar could weaken, and risky assets like BTC and U.S. stocks might finally get some room to breathe.
But if CPI is clearly above expectations, don’t rush to bottom-pick.
Because the market may start trading “the Fed will keep raising rates” again. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields could jump upward, and BTC would likely get hit again.
So tonight, I’m watching one thing:
Is CPI higher than expected or lower than expected?
Below expectations: slightly bullish.
In line with expectations: range-bound.
Above expectations: first, watch out for a sell-off.
But there’s another issue.
The market has already priced in a round of rate-hike expectations in advance. If tonight’s data isn’t as bad as people think, could it actually turn into a “bad news is already priced in” situation?
So tonight, I won’t go all-in early.
Once the data is out, we’ll see how the first wave reacts—whether it’s a chance to catch the falling knife, or whether we should chase the upside.
What do you think tonight’s CPI will do for the crypto market—will it deliver a big红包, or will it bring another major cleansing?
$BTC
Tonight’s CPI will probably keep the crypto market up again.
When the PPI came out yesterday, the market immediately started to get nervous. Now everyone’s most worried thing is this:
Will the Fed raise rates again in September or not?
The market has already priced in quite a high probability of further rate hikes, so if tonight’s CPI is just slightly above expectations, it will likely shock the market.
On the other hand, if CPI comes in below expectations, then things will feel much better.
With inflation cooling and rate-hike expectations falling, the U.S. dollar could weaken, and risky assets like BTC and U.S. stocks might finally get some room to breathe.
But if CPI is clearly above expectations, don’t rush to bottom-pick.
Because the market may start trading “the Fed will keep raising rates” again. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields could jump upward, and BTC would likely get hit again.
So tonight, I’m watching one thing:
Is CPI higher than expected or lower than expected?
Below expectations: slightly bullish.
In line with expectations: range-bound.
Above expectations: first, watch out for a sell-off.
But there’s another issue.
The market has already priced in a round of rate-hike expectations in advance. If tonight’s data isn’t as bad as people think, could it actually turn into a “bad news is already priced in” situation?
So tonight, I won’t go all-in early.
Once the data is out, we’ll see how the first wave reacts—whether it’s a chance to catch the falling knife, or whether we should chase the upside.
What do you think tonight’s CPI will do for the crypto market—will it deliver a big红包, or will it bring another major cleansing?
$BTC
