September rate hikes—are they truly a sure thing?
As an investor, the first question you need to ask yourself is this:
When Trump appointed Kevin Warsh as the Chair of the Federal Reserve, his core demand has consistently been to cut rates.
So, in Warsh’s first critical rate decision after taking office, will he really reverse course and choose to raise rates?
Right now, the market has priced the probability of a September rate hike at nearly 70%, but we believe this figure may be overestimated.
What you should really watch isn’t just the inflation data, but whether Warsh will prioritize political demands or uphold the Fed’s independence.
That may be the biggest variable that determines the September market outlook.
As an investor, the first question you need to ask yourself is this:
When Trump appointed Kevin Warsh as the Chair of the Federal Reserve, his core demand has consistently been to cut rates.
So, in Warsh’s first critical rate decision after taking office, will he really reverse course and choose to raise rates?
Right now, the market has priced the probability of a September rate hike at nearly 70%, but we believe this figure may be overestimated.
What you should really watch isn’t just the inflation data, but whether Warsh will prioritize political demands or uphold the Fed’s independence.
That may be the biggest variable that determines the September market outlook.