Will CPI ignite a rate-hike fuse? 📊
All eyes are on tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.
After we saw the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report come in stronger than expected, the market has become tense.
If CPI comes in higher than expected as well, that would mean inflation is still stubborn and not willing to cool down. In that case, the Federal Reserve would have to seriously consider raising interest rates again to cool the economy. Rate hikes = pressure on stocks, crypto, and the dollar will strengthen.
But if CPI comes in softer than expected, then the Fed might take a similar stance and keep rates unchanged. That would be a comfortable scenario for markets and would bring back risk appetite.
My personal view: with the strength we saw in the labor market, I expect CPI to come in a bit hot. That would tilt the balance toward holding rates temporarily—while the Fed maintains a hawkish tone.
What do you think? Do you see rates going up or staying put?
#CPIWatch✨
All eyes are on tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.
After we saw the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report come in stronger than expected, the market has become tense.
If CPI comes in higher than expected as well, that would mean inflation is still stubborn and not willing to cool down. In that case, the Federal Reserve would have to seriously consider raising interest rates again to cool the economy. Rate hikes = pressure on stocks, crypto, and the dollar will strengthen.
But if CPI comes in softer than expected, then the Fed might take a similar stance and keep rates unchanged. That would be a comfortable scenario for markets and would bring back risk appetite.
My personal view: with the strength we saw in the labor market, I expect CPI to come in a bit hot. That would tilt the balance toward holding rates temporarily—while the Fed maintains a hawkish tone.
What do you think? Do you see rates going up or staying put?
#CPIWatch✨