๐๐ Hot PPI. $108 oil. 5.35% on the 30 year. Payrolls smashed forecasts. CPI prints today and it can light the fuse for a Fed hike
#CPIWatch
August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000, nearly triple the forecast. The labor market is not soft. Then PPI came in at 5.4% year over year, hotter than expected. The U.S. 30 year yield jumped to 5.35%, the highest since June 2007. Brent surged about 5% to $108. Saudi output fell to a 36-year low. After PPI, odds of a 25bps hike at the Sept. 15โ16 meeting jumped to around 64%.
Todayโs August CPI is the last inflation print before the FOMC. A 0.2% core reading could still give the Fed cover to hold. A 0.3% core print would make a skip very hard to defend.
My call: the Fed hikes 25bps. It does not hold.This is not about one number. Strong jobs, hot wholesale inflation, $108 oil, and a multi-year high in long yields already rhyme. If CPI is not clearly cool, it becomes the spark.
My personal read: the market is a bit too comfortable with โthe Fed can wait.โ The bond market has already voted. Sitting still would look behind the data.
๐Asset view: short-term bullish gold, slightly bearish rate-sensitive growth stocks, neutral crypto into the print.
What Iโm holding:
- Gold: core hold, slight add bias. Hedge against a hawkish Fed and yield volatility.
- Stocks: cutting duration-heavy tech. iPhone 18 Pro keeps the Apple story intact, but Iโm not adding $AAPL before CPI.
- Crypto: long-term hold only, no extra leverage. The $400k by2030 Bitcoin case and institutional flow are still alive. Near term is noisy: Clarity Act timing, bank sanction headlines, and legal overhang.
๐๐Iโm not allin one direction. Gold is the shock absorber. Growth stocks are the cut. Crypto stays in the long-term bucket, not the CPI trade.
Bottom line: a payrolls beat does not argue for an easy Fed. If tonightโs CPI is not cold, I stay with a 25bps hike. Gold: hold/buy. Growth stocks: cautious, reduce.
#CPIWatch
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/JWiSqQ7L/?symbol=BINANCE%3AXAUUSDT.P
#CPIWatch
August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000, nearly triple the forecast. The labor market is not soft. Then PPI came in at 5.4% year over year, hotter than expected. The U.S. 30 year yield jumped to 5.35%, the highest since June 2007. Brent surged about 5% to $108. Saudi output fell to a 36-year low. After PPI, odds of a 25bps hike at the Sept. 15โ16 meeting jumped to around 64%.
Todayโs August CPI is the last inflation print before the FOMC. A 0.2% core reading could still give the Fed cover to hold. A 0.3% core print would make a skip very hard to defend.
My call: the Fed hikes 25bps. It does not hold.This is not about one number. Strong jobs, hot wholesale inflation, $108 oil, and a multi-year high in long yields already rhyme. If CPI is not clearly cool, it becomes the spark.
My personal read: the market is a bit too comfortable with โthe Fed can wait.โ The bond market has already voted. Sitting still would look behind the data.
๐Asset view: short-term bullish gold, slightly bearish rate-sensitive growth stocks, neutral crypto into the print.
What Iโm holding:
- Gold: core hold, slight add bias. Hedge against a hawkish Fed and yield volatility.
- Stocks: cutting duration-heavy tech. iPhone 18 Pro keeps the Apple story intact, but Iโm not adding $AAPL before CPI.
- Crypto: long-term hold only, no extra leverage. The $400k by2030 Bitcoin case and institutional flow are still alive. Near term is noisy: Clarity Act timing, bank sanction headlines, and legal overhang.
๐๐Iโm not allin one direction. Gold is the shock absorber. Growth stocks are the cut. Crypto stays in the long-term bucket, not the CPI trade.
Bottom line: a payrolls beat does not argue for an easy Fed. If tonightโs CPI is not cold, I stay with a 25bps hike. Gold: hold/buy. Growth stocks: cautious, reduce.
#CPIWatch
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/JWiSqQ7L/?symbol=BINANCE%3AXAUUSDT.P
