Bitcoin just flashed a “golden cross,” only to turn around and get slapped down by crude oil. $ZEC $牛来 $SC
The 50-day moving average finally managed to cross above the 200-day moving average—yet this signal is even more delayed than takeout delivery. On Tuesday it was just confirmed, and Bitcoin was already down 2%. It’s now stuck around $76,750, and slid another 3.4% over the past 24 hours. Dogecoin is even worse, leading the decline by more than 5%; BNB and XRP are also down on their knees. Ethereum is hovering below $2,475, and Solana has fallen to $102. The only thing in the green across the board is Tron—up less than 1%, about $0.34—an unmistakable case of “picking the best among the worst.”
FxPro put it bluntly: this crossover is like 2019, not like 2024 or 2025. What’s the difference? After the 2019 crossover, there was a surge of about 90% in less than two months. But the prerequisite was—macros don’t hold it back.
#比特币金叉确认 #美国8月PPI涨幅低于预期 #欧洲央行二次加息至2.5%
So what are macros doing now? Brent crude briefly surged toward $102. After Iran said it was preparing for a more intense war, it broke above $105. WTI has risen above $100 for the first time since May. Saudi oil production has fallen to the lowest level since 1990. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has jumped to 4.92%, and the probability of a rate hike in September has already climbed to 76%.
Global equities are rattling too: stocks across Asia-Pacific are down nearly 1%, with semiconductors the worst hit. Even the dollar isn’t benefiting from the oil-price strength—JPY has returned to around 150. Friday’s CPI is a do-or-die moment: the headline is expected to rise 0.4% month-on-month, and core 0.2%. If the data runs hot, the market will have to reprice rate hikes.
So the question is—will this “golden cross” be a replay of the 2019 script, or just another false move? Drop your thoughts in the comments—where do you stand?
The 50-day moving average finally managed to cross above the 200-day moving average—yet this signal is even more delayed than takeout delivery. On Tuesday it was just confirmed, and Bitcoin was already down 2%. It’s now stuck around $76,750, and slid another 3.4% over the past 24 hours. Dogecoin is even worse, leading the decline by more than 5%; BNB and XRP are also down on their knees. Ethereum is hovering below $2,475, and Solana has fallen to $102. The only thing in the green across the board is Tron—up less than 1%, about $0.34—an unmistakable case of “picking the best among the worst.”
FxPro put it bluntly: this crossover is like 2019, not like 2024 or 2025. What’s the difference? After the 2019 crossover, there was a surge of about 90% in less than two months. But the prerequisite was—macros don’t hold it back.
#比特币金叉确认 #美国8月PPI涨幅低于预期 #欧洲央行二次加息至2.5%
So what are macros doing now? Brent crude briefly surged toward $102. After Iran said it was preparing for a more intense war, it broke above $105. WTI has risen above $100 for the first time since May. Saudi oil production has fallen to the lowest level since 1990. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has jumped to 4.92%, and the probability of a rate hike in September has already climbed to 76%.
Global equities are rattling too: stocks across Asia-Pacific are down nearly 1%, with semiconductors the worst hit. Even the dollar isn’t benefiting from the oil-price strength—JPY has returned to around 150. Friday’s CPI is a do-or-die moment: the headline is expected to rise 0.4% month-on-month, and core 0.2%. If the data runs hot, the market will have to reprice rate hikes.
So the question is—will this “golden cross” be a replay of the 2019 script, or just another false move? Drop your thoughts in the comments—where do you stand?
