【Oil prices break $100, U.S. Treasuries near 5%, RAY jumps 27% in one day to lead the board; yesterday ZEC and IOST misjudged and admitted the mistake】

Fear and greed index 56: down 13 points in a day—yesterday it was 69. This is the fastest single-day cooling in this round. BTC is at $76,854, down 1.66% in 24 hours and 5.43% over 7 days. Intraday it briefly fell to $76,569, a new 7-day low; toward the close it edged back up slightly. ETH is at $2,451, down 0.45% in 24 hours and 2.26% over 7 days. The reason for the drop is straightforward. The U.S. August PPI rose 5.4% year over year, versus the 5.3% forecast; the prior figure was revised up from 4.7% to 4.8%. A 4.2% month-over-month increase in energy prices is the main driver. In the same session, WTI crude surged 6.69% to close at $102.48, the first time in five months it has broken the three-digit mark. Brent closed at $107.63. With risk premiums pushed up by tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the ports being disrupted by the Houthis, the supply-side risk premium rises. Once oil spikes, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped to 4.965%, the highest since October 2023; the 2-year yield reached 4.577%, a new high since 2024. On the same day, the ECB raised rates by 25 basis points, hitting global bonds across the board. On CME, the probability of a “25 basis point rate hike next week” has already exceeded 70%. Tonight’s CPI is the real checkpoint.
First, let me admit a mistake. The ZEC I recommended yesterday is down to 1,079 today, a single-day drop of 11.7%. IOST has crashed straight to 0.000957, down 41.8%—in the article I wrote “second half of the hot potato game; position size must be small,” but I judged the direction wrong, so I have to own it. This catch-up drop in high-priced coins is faster than I expected.
Cryptocurrency recommendations
RAY
Current: $1.5305 | 24h +27.3% | 7d +83.9% | 88/100
Outlook: Bullish. 3-day target: $1.75–$1.90.
Logic: Fundamentally the strongest name—not just pure sentiment. On Wednesday, RAY repurchased $640,800, the largest buyback since Feb 2025; cumulative buybacks total $2.1 million. DEX daily trading volume is $435 million—up 288% over five days. Daily active users are 162,000, up 77.7% month-over-month; daily transaction count is 3.1 million. It has absorbed 45% of Solana’s swap share, and its TVL of $1.124 billion hasn’t fled. Liquidations are 325,000 shorts versus 227,000 longs—this is squeeze, not “pump-and-dump.”
Risks: Up 84% in 7 days and 125% in 30 days—its position isn’t low. CoinGlass shows spot has had net outflows for ten straight days, and there’s still 466,000 net sell pressure in the last 24 hours. This move has been supported entirely by LaunchOnSF’s transaction volume; if trading cools off, buybacks will shrink too. The broader market is down—an isolated trade is the most fragile.
ETHFI
Current: $0.668 | 24h +10.6% | 7d +13.2% | 82/100
Outlook: Bullish. 3-day target: $0.75–$0.80.
Logic: Trading value is $21 million—2.71x the average volume over the prior three days. Today it directly broke through the 7-day high of 0.6647. Discussions around the spending use cases of the EtherFi Cash card have exploded in the past couple of days, with social heat moving it to the front of the pack today.
Risks: This move is driven by social attention, not by a bulletin/catalyst—there’s no hard trigger. Liquidations are nearly balanced (shorts 517k, longs 522k), so the market has no consensus on direction. The whole LSD and restaking space is still falling today—it’s doing a lonely move against the trend.
APT
Current: $0.653 | 24h +5.3% | 7d +8.3% | 79/100
Outlook: Bullish. 3-day target: $0.71–$0.75.
Logic: On Sept 8, it entered the Crypto Partner Program for Mastercard. On the same day, the Confidential APT mainnet went live—using zero-knowledge proofs to prove crypto balances and amounts, while addresses remain visible. This is aimed directly at enabling institutions to pay salaries and B2B settlements. Today, the broader market is weak on a rebound, but it’s hitting a new high with volume at 1.45x.
Risks: Ondo has stopped minting USDY on Aptos starting Sept 8, which hurts short-term DeFi liquidity. Trading value is only $9 million—the float is thin. 0.714 is both Fibonacci resistance and a prior high; if it can’t get through, it’s a fake breakout.
Recommended U.S. stocks
ORCL
Current: $152.94 (Sept 10 close, down 5.38%). After-hours: $159.26, up 4.13%.
Outlook: Bullish. 3-day target: $170–$180.
Logic: Earnings beat expectations across the board. Revenue is $19.34 billion, up 30% year over year, setting a new high for a single quarter. Adjusted EPS is 1.92 versus the expected 1.74. RPO order backlog is $664 billion, versus market expectations of $618 billion. IaaS revenue is $7.4 billion—up 121% year over year; the growth rate has accelerated for three straight quarters. In a single quarter, it delivered 850 exawatts of compute capacity and 300,000 GPUs.
Risks: Capex is $28.5 billion, versus only $8.5 billion in the same period last year—free cash flow is still negative, and it’s patched up by issuing $20 billion more via ATM. Most of the new orders won’t turn into revenue until after FY2028. After-hours, it slipped from +10% to +4%—funds are still hesitating.
AAPL
Current: $326.57 (Sept 10 close). Single-day +3.56%. Volume ratio 1.65. YTD +20.45%.
Outlook: Bullish. 3-day target: $340–$345.
Logic: During the four-consecutive-day decline across the big four indices, it rose 3.56% on the day; the volume ratio of 1.65 is a true surge—also the strongest counter-trend stock in the whole market. iPhone 17 just got released, and the event catalyst is still in its incubation phase. With a P/E of 37x, it’s not expensive among tech giants. Its 52-week high at $344.26 still leaves about 5% upside.
Risks: The 52-week high is right overhead—if it can’t break through, it’s prone to form a double top. Oil at $102 pushes up logistics and materials costs. If CPI surprises to the upside tonight, interest-rate hike expectations will heat up; no one can escape the market’s beta.
XOM
Current: $165.23 (Sept 10 close). Single-day +0.61%. YTD +40.04%. P/E ratio 21.27. Dividend yield 2.49%.
Outlook: Bullish. 3-day target: $172–$176.
Logic: The most direct beneficiaries are those tied to crude prices breaking above $100. WTI at $102.48 and Brent at $107.63 both hit new highs since May; the risk premium from the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea is unlikely to dissipate in the short term. Energy is one of the few sectors that’s still green in this streak of four consecutive market declines. With a 21x P/E plus a 2.49% dividend yield, compared with 10-year U.S. Treasuries at 4.96%, it’s a rare undervalued cash-flow asset.
Risks: Oil is driven by events—once tensions involving Iran and the U.S. ease, the rebound unwinds fastest. The 52-week high at $174.11 is very close; there’s only about 5% upside left. If CPI comes in hotter than expected, it will push up the dollar and weigh on commodities.
(IceFire Island Research Daily | 2026-09-11)